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Avalanche at Wild
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Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Minnesota Wild
2
FinalTV ALT, BSN·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 5-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 6:32 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 76% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.8 to 3.2; shots on goal were COL 36, MIN 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 44 of 46 (.957), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Filip Gustavsson stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Justus Annunen (44 saves, .957), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jonathan Drouin (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    J. Annunen44 saves, .957
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Drouin2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21818210536
MINMIN111118017246

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(14)
    J. Johnson (13), C. Mittelstadt (37)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:34
  2. MIN
    V. Lettieri(5)
    M. Shaw (2), J. Lucchini (3)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:05
  3. COL
    J. Drouin(16)PPG
    C. Makar (63), N. MacKinnon (81)
    batxG 0.35win prob +10 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:28

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(17)
    N. MacKinnon (82), D. Toews (34)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    0:43
  2. MIN
    D. Chisholm(2)PPG
    K. Kaprizov (47), M. Zuccarello (46)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:10

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(48)
    J. Drouin (34)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    6:32
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(40)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.69Video
    5-2
    18:32

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·MIN 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:20MINKirill Kaprizov · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

2nd

  • 3:53COLJonathan Drouin · Hookingdrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 6:22MINMatt Boldy · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min
  • 7:44COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 9:05COLSamuel Girard · Trippingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min
  • 16:26COLSean Walker · Holdingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 3rd 6:32 — COL 76% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.22J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.15J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.14K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.14M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.13J. Lucchini · Missed · xG 0.12M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.11K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.10K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.09M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rossi · Missed · xG 0.08J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.08M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.08J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.07M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.07M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.06A. Beckman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Khusnutdinov · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rossi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.05D. Chisholm · Goal · xG 0.05J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rossi · Missed · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.04M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.04D. Chisholm · On goal · xG 0.03M. Khusnutdinov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.03B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.03M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.03M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Lettieri · Goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.02M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beckman · On goal · xG 0.01V. Lettieri · Missed · xG 0.01M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rossi · On goal · xG 0.01B. Faber · Missed · xG 0.01B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.01A. Goligoski · On goal · xG 0.01B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beckman · On goal · xG 0.01V. Lettieri · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.00J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN2 G · 3.2 xG · 62 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
3.84 G
All situations
2 G3.2
2.83 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 113 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL50%50%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.13 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
36
Shots on goal
46
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
11
15
Blocked shots
16
9
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+240.31010—23:20
42J. MansonD000030.10120—22:00
27J. DrouinL213+350.5900210021:16
96M. RantanenR101+341.231123820:54
7D. ToewsD011+220.01220—20:45
29N. MacKinnonC123+350.360206120:27
49S. GirardD000000.08112—19:06
26S. WalkerD000+100.00302—17:53
62A. LehkonenL101030.09100—17:02
3J. JohnsonD011+120.04220—16:07
37C. MittelstadtC011010.031005014:58
28M. WoodL000020.72100—14:44
12B. DuhaimeL000010.15110—14:04
20R. ColtonC000040.151107812:43
9Z. PariseL000000.001006712:28
11A. CoglianoC000000.00010009:49
14C. WagnerR000000.002104307:41
94J. KivirantaL000000.00000—07:38
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(W)46442.9573.21+1.2160:00

Season series

COL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).