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Flames at Blues
NHL

Calgary Flames at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
St. Louis Blues
▸5
FinalTV BSMW, SNW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Calgary Flames 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 2:04 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were CGY 28, STL 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Dustin Wolf stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 2.0 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Neighbours (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brandon Saad (1 G), 3. Andrei Kuzmenko (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Neighbours1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    B. Saad1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    A. Kuzmenko2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY2919010328
STLSTL172824519

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    Z. Bolduc(2)
    A. Toropchenko (6), J. Binnington (2)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    13:02
  2. CGY
    A. Kuzmenko(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    14:48
  3. CGY
    J. Huberdeau(11)PPG
    M. Weegar (25), R. Andersson (26)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:37

2nd period

  1. STL
    J. Neighbours(26)
    R. Thomas (51), C. Parayko (15)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:27
  2. STL
    P. Buchnevich(25)PPG
    T. Krug (32), J. Neighbours (11)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:54
  3. CGY
    A. Kuzmenko(15)
    N. Kadri (38), M. Weegar (26)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-3
    16:50

3rd period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(24)
    J. Kyrou (33), B. Schenn (22)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-4
    2:04
  2. STL
    P. Buchnevich(26)EN
    T. Krug (33), J. Binnington (3)
    snapxG 0.92win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:45

Penalties

CGY 11 PIM·STL 11 PIM

1st

  • 3:04CGYDaniil Miromanov · Slashingdrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min
  • 17:27STLBrayden Schenn · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

2nd

  • 3:19STLNathan Walker · Fightingdrawn by Joel Hanley5 min
  • 3:19CGYJoel Hanley · Fightingdrawn by Nathan Walker5 min
  • 5:26CGYNazem Kadri · High sticking double minordrawn by Scott Perunovich4 min
  • 13:11STLZach Dean · Holdingdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min

3rd

  • 5:06STLJustin Faulk · Slashingdrawn by Yegor Sharangovich2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalCGY goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 3rd 2:04 — STL 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.92A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.50J. Neighbours · Goal · xG 0.40T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.34B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.19Z. Bolduc · Goal · xG 0.17Z. Bolduc · Missed · xG 0.14R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.12R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.10B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.10B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.09B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.05B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Dean · Missed · xG 0.04J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.04B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.02B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Dean · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01
STL5 G · 3.8 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsSTL
2.43 G
All situations
4 G3.8
1.72 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY57%43%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 1.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsSTL
28
Shots on goal
19
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/3
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
21
Hits
17
11
Blocked shots
16
2
Giveaways
7
17
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD011020.04110—24:06
52M. WeegarD022+100.01340—22:18
44J. HanleyD000010.02025—20:46
10J. HuberdeauL101-230.22200—20:09
62D. MiromanovD000010.03002—19:37
91N. KadriC011+130.480042919:30
11M. BacklundC000-100.110005018:56
96A. KuzmenkoL202+130.26100—18:12
20B. ColemanL000-150.713005016:40
94B. PachalD000-210.06310—15:55
17Y. SharangovichC000-210.050003314:42
28N. OkhotiukD000-210.06100—14:38
21K. RooneyC000000.002001413:37
76M. PospisilC000+220.08410013:10
47C. ZaryC000-320.12000012:20
27M. CoronatoR000-220.080105012:05
18A. GreerL000000.00110—11:27
15D. HuntL000-110.03000—08:27
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32D. Wolf(L)18144.7782.04-1.9657:57

Season series

STL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).