Maple Leafs at Capitals 7-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸7

Washington Capitals

FinalTV TNT, MAX·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Washington Capitals 7-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 12:59 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 2.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 29, WSH 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 18 of 21 (.857); Charlie Lindgren stopped 22 of 29 (.759), 5.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G, 3 A), 2. Max Domi (4 A), 3. Alex Ovechkin (2 G).

Three stars

★
A. Matthews2 G, 3 A
★★
M. Domi4 A
★★★
A. Ovechkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	18	314	37	729
WSH	010	27	14	321

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

A. Matthews(56)
M. Domi (28)
wristxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
0:16

2nd period

W. Nylander(38)
J. Tavares (30), M. Knies (16)
snapxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-0
0:56
A. Ovechkin(22)PPG
J. Carlson (36), T. Wilson (15)
slapxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-1
9:57
A. Matthews(57)
M. Domi (29), T. Liljegren (18)
wristxG 0.02win prob +18 ptsVideo
3-1
12:59
C. McMichael(15)
R. Sandin (19), I. Miroshnichenko (2)
wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-2
13:34
J. McCabe(7)
M. Domi (30), A. Matthews (30)
deflectedxG 0.07win prob +17 ptsVideo
4-2
19:35

3rd period

A. Ovechkin(23)
D. Strome (31)
wristxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
4-3
6:42
B. McMann(11)
W. Nylander (52), J. Tavares (31)
wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
5-3
7:58
T. Bertuzzi(15)
A. Matthews (31), M. Domi (31)
wristxG 0.08win prob +5 ptsVideo
6-3
8:36
J. Tavares(23)PPG
W. Nylander (53), A. Matthews (32)
backhandxG 0.06Video
7-3
16:02

Penalties

2 PIM·

10 PIM

2nd

9:05Matthew Knies · Trippingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min

3rd

1:10Alex Ovechkin · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
4:24John Carlson · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
9:34served by A. Ovechkin · Too many men on the ice2 min
12:15Tom Wilson · High sticking double minordrawn by Noah Gregor4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 2nd 12:59 — TOR 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.9 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

7 G · 2.0 xG · 43 att WSH

3 G · 2.9 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.07 G
All situations: 3 G2.9; 1.56 G
Even strength: 2 G2.7; 0.41 G
Power play: 1 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

35%65%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.95 – 2.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 21; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 1/5
Power play: 1/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 10; 34
Hits: 37; 20
Blocked shots: 18; 6
Giveaways: 8; 6
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
37T. LiljegrenD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	6	0	—	22:38
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.05	1	2	0	—	20:54
88W. NylanderR	1	2	3	+2	3	0.15	0	0	0	50	20:01
34A. MatthewsC	2	3	5	+4	5	0.43	1	1	0	65	19:35
91J. TavaresC	1	2	3	+1	3	0.21	3	0	0	25	17:43
11M. DomiC	0	4	4	+4	0	0.06	1	0	0	33	17:35
2S. BenoitD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	10	1	0	—	17:22
22J. McCabeD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.09	2	1	0	—	17:01
25C. TimminsD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	0	0	—	16:33
23M. KniesL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.10	2	1	2	—	16:02
20J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	16:00
74B. McMannC	1	0	1	0	2	0.33	2	0	0	100	15:47
24C. DewarC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	1	1	0	0	15:19
64D. KampfC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	3	0	0	64	14:52
18N. GregorL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	0	0	—	14:27
59T. BertuzziL	1	0	1	+2	2	0.13	0	1	0	—	14:19
89N. RobertsonL	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	1	0	—	14:11
29P. HolmbergR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	3	0	50	08:49

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(W)	21	18	3	.857	2.87	-0.13	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Oct 244@1Final
Mar 207@3this game
Mar 281@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score