Wild at Oilers 4-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸4

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV BSWIX, BSNX·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonas Brodin's goal at 9:31 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.7 to 3.5; shots on goal were MIN 20, EDM 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Calvin Pickard stopped 16 of 19 (.842). Three stars: 1. Matt Boldy (2 G), 2. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 1 A), 3. Filip Gustavsson (41 saves, .953).

Three stars

★
M. Boldy2 G
★★
L. Draisaitl1 G, 1 A
★★★
F. Gustavsson41 saves, .953

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	17	06	37	420
EDM	06	113	124	243

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

M. Boldy(21)
J. Middleton (12), J. Eriksson Ek (25)
wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-0
19:37

2nd period

L. Draisaitl(28)PPG
C. McDavid (65), R. Nugent-Hopkins (35)
slapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-1
10:27

3rd period

J. Brodin(5)
D. Chisholm (3), K. Kaprizov (36)
slapxG 0.04win prob +32 ptsVideo
2-1
9:31
M. Boldy(22)
R. Hartman (14), M. Johansson (18)
wristxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
3-1
12:18
Z. Hyman(35)PPG
L. Draisaitl (42), C. McDavid (66)
wristxG 0.36win prob +9 ptsVideo
3-2
14:51
M. Zuccarello(11)EN
Unassisted
wristxG 0.32win prob +7 ptsVideo
4-2
18:33

Penalties

4 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

10:42Warren Foegele · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

0:46Evander Kane · Trippingdrawn by Brock Faber2 min
5:47Evan Bouchard · Trippingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
10:10Joel Eriksson Ek · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
13:11Vincent Desharnais · Roughingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min

3rd

13:06Declan Chisholm · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Jonas Brodin, 3rd 9:31 — MIN 48% → 80%

Game flow

expected goals, added up

3.18

4.66dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out

Period	MIN xG	Att	G	EDM xG	Att	G
1st	0.80	14	1	0.96	11	0
2nd	1.67	16	0	1.21	18	1
3rd	0.70	9	2	2.49	35	1

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 4.7 xG · 64 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.5 xG · 40 att EDM

2 G · 4.7 xG · 64 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.53 G
All situations: 2 G4.7; 2.53 G
Even strength: 0 G3.9; 0.70 G
Power play: 2 G0.8; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

28%72%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 4.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG

R. Nugent-Hopkins1st 7:02 · wrist · 14 ftMissed36%
Z. Hyman3rd 14:51 · wrist · 11 ft · PPGoal36%
J. Merrill2nd 13:03 · snap · 13 ftSaved35%
C. Perry1st 15:14 · backhand · 3 ftSaved35%
K. Kaprizov3rd 16:04 · other · 9 ftSaved35%
M. Boldy2nd 13:04 · wrist · 9 ftSaved24%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

20
Shots on goal: 43; 32%
Faceoffs: 68%; 0/4
Power play: 2/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 8; 28
Hits: 26; 16
Blocked shots: 19; 5
Giveaways: 9; 4
Takeaways: 14

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	25:18
25J. BrodinD	1	0	1	+2	2	0.06	1	4	0	—	21:51
12M. BoldyL	2	0	2	+3	7	0.81	0	0	0	—	20:51
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	1	1	+2	0	0.36	2	0	2	36	20:43
47D. ChisholmD	0	1	1	+2	1	0.02	1	3	2	—	20:35
97K. KaprizovL	0	1	1	+2	3	0.67	2	1	0	—	20:29
5J. MiddletonD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.03	3	1	0	—	18:59
36M. ZuccarelloR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.58	0	1	0	—	16:46
38R. HartmanR	0	1	1	+2	1	0.19	2	0	0	23	16:11
90M. JohanssonL	0	1	1	+2	2	0.02	1	1	0	—	14:47
23M. RossiC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	20	14:30
89F. GaudreauC	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	0	0	50	13:48
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	1	0.36	4	0	0	—	13:04
6D. MermisD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	12:50
27J. LucchiniC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	0	12:32
10V. LettieriC	0	0	0	0	0	0.16	1	2	0	100	11:55
26C. DewarC	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	3	0	0	38	11:40
21B. DuhaimeL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	11:09

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)	43	41	2	.953	4.66	+2.66	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 2-1

Oct 244@7Final
Dec 83@4Final
Feb 234@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score