Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Blues
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV ESPN, SNO·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the St. Louis Blues 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 17:14 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 31% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 29, STL 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 19 of 21 (.905); Joel Hofer stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mitch Marner (3 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0611439429
STLSTL061718221

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(10)
    A. Matthews (24), M. Marner (41)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:22
  2. STL
    B. Saad(15)PPG
    C. Parayko (12), O. Sundqvist (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:14

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(49)PPG
    M. Marner (42)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:45
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(29)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-1
    7:29
  3. STL
    P. Buchnevich(19)
    T. Krug (27), R. Thomas (43)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +3 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:52
  4. TOR
    B. McMann(8)EN
    M. Marner (43), T. Brodie (13)
    wristxG 0.88win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:22

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·STL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 8:07STLJake Neighbours · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 15:15TORRyan Reaves · Trippingdrawn by Torey Krug2 min

3rd

  • 0:04STLJordan Kyrou · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 6:22TORMatthew Knies · Hookingdrawn by Nick Leddy2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalTOR goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 2nd 17:14 — STL 31% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.20J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.19J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.19P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.16K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.12B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.09B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.09C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.08T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.07B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.06K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.05R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.04R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.04M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.04T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.04P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.03N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.03P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.03C. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.03R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.03R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.01B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 2.0 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsSTL
3.53 G
All situations
2 G2.0
1.41 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
0.51 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsSTL
29
Shots on goal
21
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
19
26
Blocked shots
7
5
Giveaways
9
14
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD011+320.02010—23:59
22J. McCabeD000+100.01150—23:45
37T. LiljegrenD000+120.02020—23:29
16M. MarnerR033+230.08010—21:40
2S. BenoitD000-100.00610—21:02
34A. MatthewsC112+230.520004519:34
88W. NylanderR101020.210106718:35
91J. TavaresC000020.240206216:08
59T. BertuzziL000-110.51010—15:36
64D. KampfC000-120.282005614:40
11M. DomiC000030.090104313:57
23M. KniesL101+130.20212—13:51
48M. LajoieD000000.00510—13:44
74B. McMannC101+121.17120011:54
83M. RifaiD000010.02210—11:33
29P. HolmbergR000+110.02110—11:20
89N. RobertsonL000020.05120—11:09
75R. ReavesR000000.04232—10:05
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)21192.9051.96-0.0460:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).