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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV SN, CBC·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Shane Pinto's goal at 11:13 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 5.1 to 3.6; shots on goal were TOR 35, OTT 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 27 of 31 (.871); Joonas Korpisalo stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Shane Pinto (1 G, 2 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Claude Giroux (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    S. Pinto1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR18112115335
OTTOTT110310112532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(42)
    M. Marner (34), M. Knies (11)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:45
  2. OTT
    C. Giroux(16)
    M. Joseph (16)
    backhandxG 0.39win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:53

2nd period

  1. OTT
    V. Tarasenko(14)
    S. Pinto (3), J. Chychrun (21)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:04
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(9)
    M. Marner (35), A. Matthews (21)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:43
  3. OTT
    S. Pinto(3)
    P. Kelly (6), A. Zub (15)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:13
  4. OTT
    J. Norris(13)
    D. Batherson (22)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    15:13

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(5)
    M. Rielly (36), N. Robertson (8)
    snapxG 0.41win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    5:12
  2. OTT
    R. Greig(8)EN
    S. Pinto (4)
    slapxG 0.91win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:54

Penalties

TOR 19 PIM·OTT 0 PIM

2nd

  • 18:08TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min

3rd

  • 13:49TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 19:54TORMorgan Rielly · Cross checkingdrawn by Ridly Greig5 min
  • 19:54TORMorgan Rielly · Game misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Shane Pinto, 2nd 11:13 — OTT 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Greig · Goal · xG 0.91C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.39T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.37T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.30M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.27R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.22V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.21V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.15S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.13S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.12P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.11C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.11B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.10S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.09D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.09S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.07R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.04C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.03P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.02R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kastelic · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.00S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 5.1 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
3.63 G
All situations
4 G5.1
3.23 G
Even strength
4 G3.0
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR47%53%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.42 – 3.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
35
Shots on goal
32
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/0
Power play
0/3
19
Penalty minutes
0
20
Hits
23
15
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011040.132115—24:05
22J. McCabeD000-110.01320—22:21
78T. BrodieD000+200.00010—22:06
34A. MatthewsC112060.631106320:43
16M. MarnerR022010.33210—19:32
37T. LiljegrenD000030.06020—19:15
88W. NylanderR000-330.17022—18:18
91J. TavaresC000-340.650004617:39
2S. BenoitD000-310.01312—17:33
11M. DomiC101-130.791002516:53
59T. BertuzziL000-220.06110—16:49
18N. GregorL000040.34500—15:58
23M. KniesL112+120.17100—15:08
89N. RobertsonL011010.25010—14:09
85W. LagessonD000-100.00110—13:14
29P. HolmbergR000000.000003309:10
74B. McMannC000000.00010007:22
75R. ReavesR000000.00000—07:01
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31M. Jones(L)31274.8713.77-0.2358:38

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).