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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dominik Kubalik's goal at 11:56 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.5, TOR 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 31, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.7 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 25 of 31 (.806), 3.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tim Stützle (1 G, 3 A), 2. Dominik Kubalik (2 G), 3. Claude Giroux (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    D. Kubalik2 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT11221039631
TORTOR11218110330

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(7)PPG
    A. Matthews (6), J. Tavares (8)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:47
  2. OTT
    D. Kubalik(3)
    T. Kleven (1), R. Jarventie (1)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:11

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. Giroux(4)
    M. Joseph (6), T. Stützle (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:04
  2. TOR
    T. Bertuzzi(3)
    W. Nylander (11), J. Tavares (9)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:16
  3. OTT
    J. Chychrun(5)
    T. Stützle (11), M. Joseph (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-2
    14:06

3rd period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(1)
    M. Domi (6), C. Jarnkrok (5)
    batxG 0.05win prob +29 ptsVideo
    3-3
    7:42
  2. OTT
    D. Kubalik(4)PPG
    J. Chychrun (6), V. Tarasenko (8)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +31 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:56
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(3)
    M. Joseph (8), C. Giroux (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    5-3
    12:41
  4. OTT
    C. Giroux(5)
    T. Stützle (12)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +2 ptsVideo
    6-3
    15:07

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:46TORMatthew Knies · Interferencedrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 5:44OTTTravis Hamonic · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min

2nd

  • 6:28OTTJakob Chychrun · Cross checkingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

3rd

  • 10:02TORTJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 16:40TORJohn Tavares · Interferencedrawn by Rourke Chartier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Dominik Kubalik, 3rd 11:56 — OTT 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.24N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.11T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.09M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.08T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.05N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01W. Lagesson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.3 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
2.56 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.85 G
Even strength
2 G2.3
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT53%47%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
30
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
31
Hits
49
14
Blocked shots
12
13
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6J. ChychrunD112+420.13012—31:06
85J. SandersonD000-220.07230—23:05
24J. Bernard-DockerD000-100.00110—21:35
7B. TkachukL000-130.146005020:46
18T. StützleC134+320.342104020:46
23T. HamonicD000+410.02322—20:19
9J. NorrisC000-120.042105419:38
19D. BathersonR000-120.38100—17:24
91V. TarasenkoR011+210.19200—17:18
21M. JosephR033+350.38210—16:53
28C. GirouxR213+220.301006015:48
81D. KubalikL202+140.2221010015:07
43T. KlevenD011000.03110—13:54
49R. ChartierC000020.072002212:49
27P. KellyC000010.03110010:50
52R. JarventieL011+110.182102508:31
17Z. MacEwenR000000.00100—06:18
33N. MatinpaloD000+110.01000—05:50
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(W)30273.9002.34-0.6660:00

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).