Skip to content
Senators at Stars
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
4
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV BSSW, TSN5·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Senators led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 8:17 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.5, DAL 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 29, DAL 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.7 goals below expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jakob Chychrun (3 A), 3. Thomas Harley (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Chychrun3 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT36110013429
DALDAL2511029524

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Hamonic(2)
    J. Chychrun (13), M. Joseph (13)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:16
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(9)
    J. Chychrun (14), T. Stützle (21)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:51
  3. DAL
    J. Pavelski(13)PPG
    R. Hintz (15), J. Robertson (18)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:46
  4. OTT
    J. Norris(8)
    C. Giroux (15), J. Chychrun (15)
    snapxG 0.62win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:20
  5. DAL
    E. Lindell(3)
    M. Duchene (15)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-2
    13:30

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(10)
    B. Tkachuk (7), T. Stützle (22)
    snapxG 0.33win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    4:54
  2. DAL
    T. Harley(7)SHG
    R. Faksa (3)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:21

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(4)
    W. Johnston (10), E. Dadonov (5)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +29 ptsVideo
    4-4
    7:33
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(8)
    M. Marchment (10), T. Seguin (11)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +29 ptsVideo
    4-5
    8:17

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:34DALWyatt Johnston · Slashingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 10:26OTTClaude Giroux · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 12:28DALJani Hakanpää · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 12:37OTTMathieu Joseph · Holdingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 15:45OTTJakob Chychrun · Cross checkingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

2nd

  • 9:42DALSam Steel · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalOTT goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 3rd 8:17 — DAL 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Harley · Goal · xG 0.32J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.22W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.16R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.15M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.14T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.04J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.04C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · Goal · xG 0.03W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.03J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.03R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsDAL
2.54 G
All situations
5 G2.3
2.34 G
Even strength
3 G1.4
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT52%48%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsDAL
29
Shots on goal
24
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
30
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
14
3
Giveaways
3
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6J. ChychrunD033010.07002—25:23
18T. StützleC022040.223004224:09
28C. GirouxR011030.341023822:18
85J. SandersonD000010.06020—22:14
2A. ZubD000010.00340—22:07
19D. BathersonR202050.650007521:37
7B. TkachukL011-150.239101420:43
9J. NorrisC101+120.672103319:24
81D. KubalikL000-110.07010—18:59
26E. BrannstromD000000.00020—16:34
23T. HamonicD101+110.01010—15:58
71R. GreigC000-100.003001415:48
27P. KellyC000-120.15310014:32
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.00000—13:00
12M. KastelicC000000.002008607:12
17Z. MacEwenR000+130.05300—06:59
21M. JosephR011+100.02102—04:45
49R. ChartierC000000.0000010004:25
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)24195.7922.33-2.6758:33

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).