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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
Detroit Red Wings
▸6
FinalTV BSDET, BSSUN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-4. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Red Wings led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was J.T. Compher's goal at 15:23 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 25, DET 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.2 goals below expected; Ville Husso stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (2 G, 1 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 1 A), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. DeBrincat2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2101718425
DETDET21422127642

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Sprong(2)
    A. DeBrincat (1)
    pokexG 0.24win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:11
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(1)
    V. Hedman (2), N. Kucherov (1)
    slapxG 0.28win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:46
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(2)
    V. Hedman (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:52
  4. DET
    A. DeBrincat(2)
    S. Gostisbehere (2)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    14:35

2nd period

  1. DET
    L. Raymond(1)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-3
    2:01
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(2)
    B. Hagel (1), A. Cirelli (1)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    10:53
  3. DET
    J. Compher(1)
    M. Seider (1), A. Copp (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +21 ptsVideo
    3-4
    15:23

3rd period

  1. DET
    A. DeBrincat(3)
    D. Larkin (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-5
    4:44
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(1)PPG
    N. Kucherov (2), S. Stamkos (2)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-5
    9:39
  3. DET
    M. Seider(1)EN
    J. Compher (2)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-6
    19:59

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:54TBLAnthony Cirelli · Interferencedrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

2nd

  • 18:57DETDaniel Sprong · Holdingdrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min

3rd

  • 8:51DETJake Walman · Roughingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 8:51TBLBrayden Point · Roughingdrawn by Jake Walman2 min
  • 8:51DETJake Walman · Roughingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: J.T. Compher, 2nd 15:23 — DET 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Seider · Goal · xG 0.49D. Sprong · Goal · xG 0.24L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.21D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.20L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.19M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.18D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.18J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.17D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.15D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.12J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.12J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.10L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.09A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kostin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.08D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.08L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.06L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.04D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.02A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.02D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.02J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.02J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kostin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.01J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.00S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.00
DET6 G · 4.3 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
2.64 G
All situations
5 G4.3
1.93 G
Even strength
5 G3.4
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL32%68%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 3.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
25
Shots on goal
42
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
21
2
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86N. KucherovR022-220.23000—23:30
77V. HedmanD123030.18110—23:21
21B. PointC000-100.250024021:52
98M. SergachevD000-410.03100—21:30
43D. RaddyshD000-310.00240—21:18
20N. PaulL000-220.235107320:03
38B. HagelL112040.38100—19:19
91S. StamkosC213+160.630002518:11
81E. CernakD000-100.02210—16:33
71A. CirelliC011-100.384127116:30
48N. PerbixD000+200.00000—15:35
84T. JeannotL000-100.11300—12:40
44C. de HaanD000-110.02030—12:34
11L. GlendeningC000-110.013005012:27
39W. MerelaC000-100.00200012:01
23M. EyssimontC000020.03100011:39
73C. ShearyL000-220.080005011:19
7H. FleuryD000+100.00200—10:08
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)41365.8783.78-1.2257:30

Season series

DET leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).