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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸3
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalScotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2. The Panthers came back from two goals down. The Panthers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gustav Forsling's goal at 1:06 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 47% to 63%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.4 to 2.7; shots on goal were FLA 29, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sergei Bobrovsky (35 saves, .946), 2. Anton Lundell (1 G, 1 A), 3. Gustav Forsling (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky35 saves, .946
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Lundell1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    G. Forsling1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1929011329
TORTOR215010012237

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(2)
    L. Schenn (1), M. Rielly (7)
    wristxG 0.58win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:20
  2. TOR
    R. O'Reilly(3)PPG
    M. Marner (10), A. Matthews (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    5:10
  3. FLA
    A. Lundell(1)
    S. Reinhart (2)
    snapxG 0.29win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    11:13

2nd period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(2)
    A. Duclair (3)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    0:19
  2. FLA
    G. Forsling(2)
    M. Tkachuk (10), A. Lundell (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    1:06

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

1st

  • 4:45FLAZac Dalpe · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 6:23FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Chargingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

2nd

  • 15:28FLASam Bennett · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 20:00TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Gustav Forsling, 2nd 1:06 — FLA 47% → 63%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.58W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.27R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.26M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.22J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.19A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.15W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.05S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 4.4 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
2.73 G
All situations
2 G4.4
2.23 G
Even strength
1 G3.2
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA20%80%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.31 – 4.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
37
31%
Faceoffs
69%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
42
Hits
48
15
Blocked shots
6
14
Giveaways
18
15
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
18M. StaalD000+200.00200—25:26
62B. MontourD000+340.14330—25:11
42G. ForslingD101+130.26110—22:42
5A. EkbladD000020.20200—21:47
19M. TkachukL011+120.05312—20:36
16A. BarkovC101+110.021202919:28
9S. BennettC000020.1010223618:41
13S. ReinhartC011+100.003002517:02
21N. CousinsC000020.11310016:38
23C. VerhaegheC000+140.47100016:26
27E. LuostarinenC000+210.35400015:32
7R. GudasD000-100.04510—15:12
10A. DuclairL011+120.01200—14:53
15A. LundellC112+240.620105014:48
28J. MahuraD000-100.00110—09:28
12E. StaalC000-110.081004008:51
6C. WhiteC000-100.08020006:35
22Z. DalpeC000-110.13002006:19
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)37352.9464.37+2.3760:00

Series

FLA leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).