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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalScotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Carter Verhaeghe's goal at 17:47 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.9 to 2.5; shots on goal were FLA 28, TOR 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Bennett (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (3 A), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (34 saves, .944).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Bennett1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    M. Tkachuk3 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky34 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1132619428
TORTOR09213014236

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    N. Cousins(1)
    M. Tkachuk (7), S. Bennett (3)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:25

2nd period

  1. FLA
    S. Bennett(4)
    A. Ekblad (1), M. Tkachuk (8)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    7:58
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(1)
    A. Matthews (5), M. Rielly (6)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    8:09
  3. TOR
    M. Bunting(1)
    C. Jarnkrok (2), R. O'Reilly (6)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    14:51
  4. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(3)
    A. Duclair (2), A. Barkov (6)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    17:47

3rd period

  1. FLA
    B. Montour(6)
    M. Tkachuk (9), A. Barkov (7)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    12:24

Penalties

FLA 10 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

1st

  • 2:20FLASam Bennett · Elbowingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 4:46FLAGustav Forsling · Trippingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min
  • 19:10TORMark Giordano · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 8:53FLAJosh Mahura · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 19:23FLASam Bennett · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan O'Reilly4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Carter Verhaeghe, 2nd 17:47 — FLA 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.21M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.18M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.17Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.16W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.16A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.14M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.12M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.04M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 3.9 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
2.54 G
All situations
2 G3.9
2.44 G
Even strength
2 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
0 G1.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA29%71%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 3.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
36
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/1
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
2
47
Hits
36
8
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
42G. ForslingD000010.05202—25:57
5A. EkbladD011020.05210—23:11
62B. MontourD101+250.19310—22:15
16A. BarkovC022+240.163107121:57
19M. TkachukL033+230.18900—20:45
13S. ReinhartC000-120.233203820:44
18M. StaalD000+100.01300—20:40
9S. BennettC112+240.664064419:02
15A. LundellC000010.111005017:47
27E. LuostarinenC000000.00100017:02
7R. GudasD000000.01220—15:30
23C. VerhaegheC101+210.33600015:21
21N. CousinsC101+110.20500013:38
10A. DuclairL011+100.01100—12:59
28J. MahuraD000+110.01012—11:00
12E. StaalC000-110.08000006:50
6C. WhiteC000-100.00200004:58
22Z. DalpeC000020.23000004:19
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)36342.9443.88+1.8859:28

Series

FLA leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).