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Maple Leafs at Predators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV BSSO, SNO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Nashville Predators 3-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Kerfoot's goal at 1:02 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.8 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 34, NSH 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Kevin Lankinen stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G, 1 A), 2. Cody Glass (1 G), 3. Joseph Woll (23 saves, .920).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    C. Glass1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Woll23 saves, .920

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR110110114334
NSHNSH0120429225

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(31)PPG
    M. Marner (66), A. Matthews (40)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    18:06

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(9)
    J. Tavares (43), J. Holl (15)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    1:02

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Glass(11)PPG
    T. Barrie (39), T. Novak (20)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +10 pts
    2-1
    12:37
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(32)PPG
    M. Rielly (35), A. Matthews (41)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +8 pts
    3-1
    15:09
  3. NSH
    T. Barrie(13)
    P. Tomasino (12)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    3-2
    18:18

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·NSH 10 PIM

1st

  • 17:18NSHYakov Trenin · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

2nd

  • 1:43TORJustin Holl · High stickingdrawn by Philip Tomasino2 min
  • 7:14NSHMark Jankowski · Slashingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 10:49TORWayne Simmonds · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Kevin Lankinen2 min
  • 14:17NSHRasmus Asplund · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 2:12NSHPhilip Tomasino · Slashingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 4:22TORJake McCabe · Holdingdrawn by Philip Tomasino2 min
  • 12:27TORJohn Tavares · Interferencedrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min
  • 14:16NSHCal Foote · High stickingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTOR goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot, 2nd 1:02 — TOR 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.27K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.18C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.15L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.13C. Glass · Goal · xG 0.13K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.12C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.12C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.10K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.08T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gross · On goal · xG 0.06T. Barrie · Goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.04E. Afanasyev · Missed · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.03T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.02J. Gross · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH2 G · 2.1 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNSH
3.83 G
All situations
2 G2.1
2.61 G
Even strength
1 G1.0
1.02 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR77%23%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.69 – 2.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNSH
34
Shots on goal
25
61%
Faceoffs
39%
2/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
21
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000010.18100—23:24
16M. MarnerR011020.46010—22:28
22J. McCabeD000020.01202—22:16
34A. MatthewsC022050.510007721:58
55M. GiordanoD000020.09010—20:35
44M. RiellyD011020.13100—18:03
88W. NylanderR000+130.47010—17:51
19C. JarnkrokC000010.19000017:11
91J. TavaresC213+130.350124416:02
3J. HollD011020.28112—15:42
15A. KerfootC101040.17110014:16
52N. AcciariC000-110.164405513:38
64D. KampfC000-110.100006713:20
28S. LaffertyC000000.0010010013:12
2L. SchennD000000.00710—13:10
58M. BuntingL000010.15000—12:25
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000030.50300—10:35
24W. SimmondsR000010.02002—07:49
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)25232.9202.06+0.0659:55

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).