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Predators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸2
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Nashville Predators 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 18:45 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 59% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were NSH 33, TOR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943); Matt Murray stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G), 2. Matt Murray (32 saves, .970), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Murray32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01017016133
TORTOR11507113235

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(20)
    W. Nylander (24), T. Liljegren (6)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    16:54

2nd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(17)
    J. Parssinen (11), M. Duchene (20)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:46

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(16)PPG
    W. Nylander (25), J. Tavares (22)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +35 pts
    1-2
    18:45

Penalties

NSH 10 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:03NSHTanner Jeannot · Interferencedrawn by Mark Giordano2 min
  • 9:57TORDryden Hunt · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min

2nd

  • 7:02NSHMark Jankowski · Interferencedrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 14:09NSHDante Fabbro · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

3rd

  • 9:21TORPierre Engvall · Holding the stickdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 15:38NSHMark Jankowski · High sticking double minordrawn by Morgan Rielly4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNSH goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 3rd 18:45 — TOR 59% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.22J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.17B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.13W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.10C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.09A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.07A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.07R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.05B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.05T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.7 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTOR
2.31 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.51 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.80 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH46%54%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
35
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
4
36
Hits
25
13
Blocked shots
14
7
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000020.05110—23:57
27R. McDonaghD000010.00210—21:31
14M. EkholmD000-110.00110—21:14
64M. GranlundC000030.220204020:37
95M. DucheneC011+120.1700010019:03
45A. CarrierD000-110.01220—19:03
22N. NiederreiterR000030.24710—17:12
9F. ForsbergL101+130.32100—16:33
3J. LauzonD000+110.02530—15:53
75J. ParssinenC011+100.061203814:14
13Y. TreninC000-120.05300014:11
92R. JohansenC000030.300005314:08
10C. SissonsC000010.014005014:03
57D. FabbroD000+100.00302—14:03
84T. JeannotL000-140.35302—14:01
8C. GlassC000040.291005012:30
17M. JankowskiL000010.12206—10:19
82T. NovakC000-110.110002009:32
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)35332.9432.49+0.4958:49

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).