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Hurricanes at Flyers
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
Philadelphia Flyers
4
Final/OTWells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in overtime, Sebastian Aho scoring at 0:28. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 0:28 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — CAR 3.2, PHI 3.2; shots on goal were CAR 34, PHI 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.8 goals below expected; Felix Sandstrom stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sebastian Aho (3 G), 2. Tyson Foerster (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brady Skjei (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Aho3 G
  2. ★★
    PHI
    T. Foerster1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    B. Skjei1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR2121411711534
PHIPHI0821321200433

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(28)
    M. Necas (37), B. Skjei (17)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    14:52
  2. CAR
    B. Skjei(15)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    16:51

2nd period

  1. PHI
    T. Foerster(1)
    M. Frost (19), B. Lemieux (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    4:56
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(29)
    S. Noesen (19), S. Gostisbehere (24)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    13:55
  3. PHI
    N. Cates(11)PPG
    T. Foerster (2), O. Tippett (17)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    18:18

3rd period

  1. PHI
    J. Farabee(11)
    O. Tippett (18), N. Cates (18)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    3:33
  2. PHI
    B. Lemieux(2)
    M. Frost (20)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +27 pts
    3-4
    5:50
  3. CAR
    M. Necas(27)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +48 pts
    4-4
    19:59

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(30)
    J. Slavin (16), B. Burns (40)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    0:28

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·PHI 2 PIM

2nd

  • 16:37CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 18:06CARBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Tony DeAngelo2 min

3rd

  • 12:38CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Cross checkingdrawn by Tony DeAngelo2 min
  • 14:54CARSebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Cam York2 min
  • 19:53PHIScott Laughton · Holdingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalCAR goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, OT 0:28 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Cates · Goal · xG 0.33B. Lemieux · Goal · xG 0.31O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.22T. Foerster · On goal · xG 0.19O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.17T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.16B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.16J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.15N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.13T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.10T. Foerster · Goal · xG 0.09N. Cates · Missed · xG 0.09J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.08O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.08J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.08C. York · On goal · xG 0.07M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.07M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.07M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.06M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.05J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.05B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.05S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.05K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.05T. Foerster · On goal · xG 0.05B. Lemieux · Missed · xG 0.04K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.04T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.03N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.02B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.01O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI4 G · 3.2 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsPHI
3.25 G
All situations
4 G3.2
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR50%50%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.17 – 3.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsPHI
34
Shots on goal
33
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/1
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
2
18
Hits
29
5
Blocked shots
21
6
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22B. PesceD000+110.16010—23:01
8B. BurnsD011020.06010—22:19
74J. SlavinD011-110.00010—22:11
76B. SkjeiD112+140.14402—22:04
20S. AhoC303+140.681025819:53
86T. TeravainenC000020.16000018:46
11J. StaalC000010.042005917:49
48J. MartinookL000-120.0710010017:10
88M. NecasC112050.780006017:08
24S. JarvisR000-120.51100—16:34
41S. GostisbehereD011+120.08000—15:56
5J. ChatfieldD000000.15000—15:32
82J. KotkaniemiC000-120.131045014:47
13J. PuljujarviR000030.11400—13:52
71J. FastR000-100.00200—12:55
23S. NoesenR011+220.14200—09:35
21D. StepanC000+110.020105608:25
18J. DruryC000+100.000102508:01
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)33294.8793.21-0.7958:13

Season series

CAR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).