Wild at Blues 8-5 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Minnesota Wild

▸8

St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the St. Louis Blues 8-5. The Wild came back from two goals down. The Wild led 6-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Shaw's goal at 6:52 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were MIN 35, STL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 2.4 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Hartman (2 G, 1 A), 2. Pavel Buchnevich (3 G), 3. Joel Eriksson Ek (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

★
R. Hartman2 G, 1 A
★★
P. Buchnevich3 G
★★★
J. Eriksson Ek1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	112	517	26	835
STL	39	110	117	536

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

P. Buchnevich(21)
T. Krug (19), T. Tucker (3)
wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
0-1
4:43
J. Eriksson Ek(23)PPG
M. Boldy (27), R. Hartman (17)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
1-1
12:10
J. Vrana(4)PPG
T. Krug (20), J. Binnington (2)
wristxG 0.24win prob +13 pts
1-2
14:10
J. Vrana(5)PPG
J. Kyrou (34), B. Schenn (32)
slapxG 0.09win prob +11 pts
1-3
17:53

2nd period

J. Klingberg(9)
M. Johansson (18), J. Eriksson Ek (28)
wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
2-3
4:54
O. Sundqvist(8)
S. Steel (16), F. Gaudreau (16)
wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
3-3
6:05
M. Shaw(6)
R. Reaves (9), J. Eriksson Ek (29)
wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
4-3
6:52
P. Buchnevich(22)PPG
R. Thomas (43), T. Krug (21)
wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
4-4
11:24
R. Hartman(11)PPG
M. Zuccarello (41)
snapxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
5-4
12:25
A. Goligoski(2)
M. Boldy (28), S. Steel (17)
backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
6-4
13:58

3rd period

R. Reaves(3)
A. Goligoski (4), C. Dewar (10)
wristxG 0.20win prob +7 pts
7-4
2:24
R. Hartman(12)SHG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.03win prob +1 pts
8-4
8:30
P. Buchnevich(23)
J. Faulk (26), R. Thomas (44)
snapxG 0.04
8-5
14:14

Penalties

14 PIM·

23 PIM

1st

11:30Pavel Buchnevich · Hookingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min
12:27Alex Goligoski · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min
14:41Jordan Kyrou · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
17:50Jon Merrill · Trippingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min

2nd

9:55John Klingberg · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min
11:28Jakub Vrana · Hookingdrawn by Sammy Walker2 min
12:25Ryan Hartman · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jordan Binnington2 min
12:25Marc-Andre Fleury · Goalie leave crease2 min
12:25Jordan Binnington · Goalie leave crease2 min
12:25Jordan Binnington · Match penaltydrawn by Ryan Hartman5 min
14:40Brayden Schenn · Misconduct10 min
18:09Oskar Sundqvist · High stickingdrawn by Torey Krug2 min

3rd

6:30Mason Shaw · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Tucker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: STL

Biggest swing: Mason Shaw, 2nd 6:52 — MIN 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

5 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

8 G · 3.0 xG · 44 att STL

5 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.08 G
All situations: 5 G2.6; 2.25 G
Even strength: 2 G2.1; 0.52 G
Power play: 3 G0.5; 0.21 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

55%45%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.86 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 36; 62%
Faceoffs: 38%; 2/4
Power play: 3/5; 14
Penalty minutes: 33; 15
Hits: 21; 10
Blocked shots: 8; 3
Giveaways: 8; 8
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3J. KlingbergD	1	0	1	0	4	0.31	0	0	2	—	23:18
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	0	—	22:47
24M. DumbaD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.03	2	0	0	—	20:02
33A. GoligoskiD	1	1	2	+1	1	0.17	1	4	2	—	19:37
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	50	18:45
12M. BoldyL	0	2	2	+1	1	0.12	0	1	0	100	17:51
38R. HartmanR	2	1	3	0	5	0.40	0	1	2	31	17:37
14J. Eriksson EkC	1	2	3	+1	6	0.32	1	0	0	63	17:33
89F. GaudreauC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.14	0	0	0	77	16:39
90M. JohanssonL	0	1	1	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	15:19
2C. AddisonD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	14:41
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	+3	1	0.00	1	1	2	—	14:35
74S. WalkerC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	0	0	0	0	12:57
70O. SundqvistC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.16	1	0	2	0	12:47
13S. SteelC	0	2	2	+2	3	0.55	0	0	0	100	12:42
15M. ShawC	1	0	1	+2	2	0.15	2	1	2	0	12:38
26C. DewarC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	2	0	71	11:42
75R. ReavesR	1	1	2	+2	3	0.38	3	0	0	—	09:15

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29M. Fleury(W)	36	31	5	.861	2.60	-2.40	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score