Blues at Wild 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸3

Minnesota Wild

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Minnesota Wild 3-0. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Schenn's goal at 14:00 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 81% to 97%. Expected goals were close — STL 2.8, MIN 2.8; shots on goal were STL 24, MIN 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 2.8 goals saved above expected; Filip Gustavsson stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Thomas Greiss (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Kirill Kaprizov, 3. Brandon Saad (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
T. Greiss35 saves, 1.000
★★
K. Kaprizov
★★★
B. Saad1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	114	06	24	324
MIN	09	03	023	035

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

B. Saad(13)PPG
J. Neighbours (2), C. Parayko (11)
wristxG 0.45win prob +9 pts
1-0
8:17

3rd period

B. Schenn(9)
B. Saad (5)
snapxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
2-0
14:00
B. Schenn(10)EN
P. Buchnevich (21), C. Parayko (12)
wristxG 0.44
3-0
19:54

Penalties

6 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

6:22Mason Shaw · High sticking double minordrawn by Steven Santini4 min

2nd

6:06Robert Thomas · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min
11:35Joel Eriksson Ek · Holdingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min

3rd

1:34Jonas Brodin · Trippingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
11:48Brayden Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
17:05Colton Parayko · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

Biggest swing: Brayden Schenn, 3rd 14:00 — STL 81% → 97%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.8 xG · 56 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.8 xG · 34 att MIN

0 G · 2.8 xG · 56 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.82 G
All situations: 0 G2.8; 1.21 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 1.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.9; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

42%58%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 2.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 35; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 1/4
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 8; 19
Hits: 23; 25
Blocked shots: 9; 4
Giveaways: 8; 5
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
72J. FaulkD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.06	4	3	0	—	28:57
55C. ParaykoD	0	2	2	+2	4	0.12	0	1	2	—	26:00
89P. BuchnevichL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.59	0	0	0	—	20:58
77N. MikkolaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	20:58
18R. ThomasC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.12	0	2	2	50	19:53
20B. SaadL	1	1	2	+1	3	0.59	0	0	0	—	18:40
25J. KyrouR	0	0	0	0	2	0.32	0	1	0	—	18:01
52N. AcciariC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	2	1	0	50	17:45
10B. SchennC	2	0	2	+2	2	0.66	1	2	2	46	17:39
49I. BarbashevL	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	1	0	0	—	17:10
43C. RosenD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	2	0	—	15:40
75T. TuckerD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	15:07
63J. NeighboursL	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	0	2	0	—	15:02
36S. SantiniD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	3	4	0	—	09:25
26N. WalkerL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	09:21
9T. PitlickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	08:37
13A. ToropchenkoR	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	1	0	—	08:33
59N. AlexandrovC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	100	06:30

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1T. Greiss(W)	35	35	0	1.000	2.80	+2.80	59:44

Season series

MIN leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score