Ducks at Flames 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Anaheim Ducks

▸3

Calgary Flames

FinalTV BSSC, TVAS·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Flames scored first; the Ducks answered. The Ducks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brett Leason's goal at 11:33 of the second period, which took the Ducks' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.1 to 2.2; shots on goal were ANA 18, CGY 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. John Gibson stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 15 of 17 (.882), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Gibson (36 saves, .973), 2. Maxime Comtois (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mikael Backlund (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Gibson36 saves, .973
★★
M. Comtois1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Backlund1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	05	25	18	318
CGY	013	19	015	137

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

M. Backlund(15)PPG
E. Lindholm (35), T. Toffoli (29)
deflectedxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
0-1
6:43
M. Comtois(7)
F. Vatrano (17), C. Fowler (29)
wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
1-1
7:47
B. Leason(5)
M. Comtois (7), D. Grant (7)
wristxG 0.15win prob +20 pts
2-1
11:33

3rd period

D. Grant(4)EN
J. Silfverberg (11), S. Benoit (4)
backhandxG 0.53win prob +3 pts
3-1
19:58

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

8:52Brett Leason · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

2nd

5:53Mason McTavish · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Brett Leason, 2nd 11:33 — ANA 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.2 xG · 24 att CGY

1 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.22 G
All situations: 1 G3.1; 1.22 G
Even strength: 0 G2.5; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

18%82%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.21 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

18
Shots on goal: 37; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/0
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 11
Hits: 16; 22
Blocked shots: 9; 7
Giveaways: 7; 11
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4C. FowlerD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	23:49
13S. BenoitD	0	1	1	+3	1	0.08	2	2	0	—	23:07
22K. ShattenkirkD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.05	3	1	0	—	21:42
17S. HarringtonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.07	0	7	0	—	20:17
19T. TerryR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	16:50
11T. ZegrasC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	0	16:36
16R. StromeC	0	0	0	0	3	0.12	0	0	0	33	16:23
45C. WhiteD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	16:01
38D. GrantC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.53	0	1	0	35	15:56
33J. SilfverbergR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	15:50
28N. BeaulieuD	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	1	0	—	15:11
37M. McTavishC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	1	2	57	14:58
49M. JonesL	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	2	1	0	—	14:22
77F. VatranoR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	14:19
44M. ComtoisL	1	1	2	+2	3	0.75	0	0	0	—	13:53
26B. McGinnL	0	0	0	0	3	0.17	0	2	0	—	13:40
21I. LundestromC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	57	13:29
20B. LeasonR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.15	2	0	2	—	10:47

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Gibson(W)	37	36	1	.973	3.07	+2.07	60:00

Season series

CGY leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score