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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Minnesota Wild
2
FinalXcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Minnesota Wild 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 16:29 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were COL 19, MIN 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 41 of 43 (.953), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alexandar Georgiev (41 saves, .953), 3. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev41 saves, .953
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL162409319
MINMIN017113113243

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Cogliano(9)
    D. Toews (25), S. Girard (15)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    15:14

2nd period

  1. COL
    D. Malgin(4)
    N. MacKinnon (44), J. Manson (5)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    2:20
  2. MIN
    J. Eriksson Ek(21)PPG
    M. Zuccarello (34), M. Boldy (22)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    7:09
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(18)
    A. Lehkonen (20), D. Toews (26)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    16:29

3rd period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(31)
    M. Zuccarello (35), J. Brodin (8)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    3-2
    14:07

Penalties

COL 9 PIM·MIN 7 PIM

1st

  • 3:06COLJ.T. Compher · Interferencedrawn by Jared Spurgeon2 min
  • 12:38MINMatt Boldy · Fightingdrawn by Bowen Byram5 min
  • 12:38COLBowen Byram · Fightingdrawn by Matt Boldy5 min
  • 18:09MINMason Shaw · Slashingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

2nd

  • 5:50COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 16:29 — COL 69% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.18J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.16K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.14F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.14J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.12K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.12J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.12J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.11M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.11J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.10J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.10J. Eriksson Ek · Goal · xG 0.10M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.10R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.10M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.07J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.07F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.06J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.06C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.05J. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.05J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.05C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.05S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.04R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.04S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.04F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03B. Duhaime · Missed · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.03B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.03J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.02B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.02J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Shaw · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Shaw · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.01J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.01M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.01M. Shaw · On goal · xG 0.01J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.00J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN2 G · 3.1 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
1.93 G
All situations
2 G3.1
1.43 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL23%77%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.50 – 3.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
19
Shots on goal
43
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/1
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
7
22
Hits
19
22
Blocked shots
18
3
Giveaways
5
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD022+100.00310—27:25
49S. GirardD011-100.00100—23:49
29N. MacKinnonC112+260.490002622:09
96M. RantanenR000-110.451225021:44
9E. RodriguesC000-100.002105021:22
37J. CompherL000-110.200323921:08
4B. ByramD000+200.00225—20:47
42J. MansonD011+120.06450—20:35
25L. O'ConnorR000+100.00200—17:32
13V. NichushkinR000+120.26220—17:31
62A. LehkonenL011+130.1902010017:18
18A. NewhookC000+100.142207014:14
11A. CoglianoC101+120.07010012:58
17B. HuntD000+100.00000—09:56
88A. EnglundD000000.01200—09:52
56K. MacDermidL000000.00000—06:24
83M. NietoL000+110.03000—06:20
81D. MalginC101+110.03110005:37
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)43412.9533.09+1.0960:00

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).