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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Final/OTTV MSG-B, MSGSN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 3-2 in overtime, Dylan Cozens scoring at 0:12. The Islanders scored first; the Sabres answered. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 0:12 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.2 to 3.1; shots on goal were NYI 26, BUF 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 42 of 45 (.933), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Cozens (1 G), 2. Alex Tuch (1 G), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (24 saves, .923).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen24 saves, .923

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NYINYI1511101000226
BUFBUF01911211311345

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(16)
    A. Beauvillier (10), J. Bailey (13)
    tip-inxG 0.23win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:19

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(22)
    R. Dahlin (36), J. Skinner (26)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    8:26
  2. NYI
    M. Martin(5)
    C. Cizikas (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +23 pts
    2-1
    18:30

3rd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(19)
    C. Mittelstadt (20), T. Jost (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +31 pts
    2-2
    9:32

Overtime

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(15)
    R. Dahlin (37), T. Thompson (28)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    0:12

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 9:11NYISebastian Aho · Holdingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

2nd

  • 3:36NYINoah Dobson · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 9:01NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Cross checkingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 16:01BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, OT 0:12 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.28T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.22J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.22D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.20J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.17R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.16K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.16P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.15A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.14J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.09O. Power · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.09O. Power · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.05O. Power · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 4.2 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
3.12 G
All situations
3 G4.2
2.92 G
Even strength
3 G3.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI34%66%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 4.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
26
Shots on goal
45
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
9
28
Blocked shots
10
4
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24S. MayfieldD000+120.05330—23:25
25S. AhoD000-120.05052—22:42
8N. DobsonD000-120.05222—21:37
6R. PulockD000-110.00030—21:34
28A. RomanovD000010.04140—18:46
29B. NelsonC101040.810105618:13
44J. PageauC000-130.260225617:59
12J. BaileyR011+200.0311010017:54
11Z. PariseL000-100.0202010017:34
18A. BeauvillierR011030.33010—17:03
53C. CizikasC011030.682005516:32
13M. BarzalC000010.050105015:36
17M. MartinL101-130.22102010015:02
27A. LeeL000010.42000—14:07
7D. CholowskiD000+100.00010—11:35
15C. ClutterbuckR000-100.11400—10:21
10S. HolmstromR000000.00000—08:49
32R. JohnstonL000000.00100—05:47
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(O)45423.9334.23+1.2360:12

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).