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Senators at Blues
NHL

Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
St. Louis Blues
▸2
FinalTV BSMW, SN·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Ottawa Senators 2-1. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tim Stützle's goal at 13:52 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 12% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were OTT 33, STL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Jordan Binnington stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Neighbours (1 G), 2. Jordan Binnington (32 saves, .970), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Neighbours1 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    J. Binnington32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT01119013133
STLSTL280408220

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    J. Neighbours(3)
    C. Rosen (7), J. Leivo (8)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:30
  2. STL
    N. Acciari(10)
    Unassisted
    pokexG 0.34win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    15:06

2nd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(19)
    B. Tkachuk (27), D. Batherson (25)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    13:52

Penalties

OTT 9 PIM·STL 7 PIM

1st

  • 16:50STLNiko Mikkola · Slashingdrawn by Nick Holden2 min

2nd

  • 1:47OTTParker Kelly · Fightingdrawn by Jake Neighbours5 min
  • 1:47STLJake Neighbours · Fightingdrawn by Parker Kelly5 min
  • 7:44OTTShane Pinto · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

3rd

  • 16:40OTTMark Kastelic · High stickingdrawn by Nick Leddy2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalOTT goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Tim Stützle, 2nd 13:52 — OTT 12% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Acciari · Goal · xG 0.34J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.19B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.15J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.14P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.13J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.12J. Neighbours · Goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.07J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.06C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.05J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.05N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.05T. Pitlick · On goal · xG 0.04B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.03C. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.03R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02C. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.02T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Leivo · Missed · xG 0.01N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 1.9 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsSTL
2.41 G
All situations
2 G1.9
2.01 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT59%41%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.34 – 1.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsSTL
33
Shots on goal
20
31%
Faceoffs
69%
0/1
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
7
25
Hits
23
19
Blocked shots
9
3
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000020.05030—26:48
24J. Bernard-DockerD000020.06050—20:56
19D. BathersonR011010.27100—20:09
18T. StützleC101+160.540002020:08
28C. GirouxR000-140.470005719:23
12A. DeBrincatR000-140.29200—19:13
85J. SandersonD000-100.04010—19:10
23T. HamonicD000-150.08050—18:00
7B. TkachukL011+130.188001717:58
5N. HoldenD000010.02110—16:14
57S. PintoC000-100.020022515:44
26E. BrannstromD000010.04100—15:25
61D. BrassardC000010.1400010012:33
16A. WatsonL000000.00220—11:54
27D. GambrellC000-100.00210011:20
36J. LucchiniC000010.04200011:14
45P. KellyC000-110.05305010:53
47M. KastelicC000010.063122110:07
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33C. Talbot(L)20182.9001.87-0.1358:51

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).