Capitals at Oilers 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Washington Capitals

▸3

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV NBCSWA, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-2. The Oilers scored first; the Capitals answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nic Dowd's goal at 7:13 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.8 to 2.3; shots on goal were WSH 50, EDM 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Charlie Lindgren stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Stuart Skinner stopped 47 of 50 (.940), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Stuart Skinner (47 saves, .940), 2. Nic Dowd (1 G), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Skinner47 saves, .940
★★
N. Dowd1 G
★★★
C. McDavid1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	022	219	19	350
EDM	012	27	011	230

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

B. Kulak(1)
R. Nugent-Hopkins (16)
slapxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
0-1
1:44
L. Eller(4)
S. Milano (6)
wristxG 0.24win prob +18 pts
1-1
7:25
C. McDavid(22)SHG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.31win prob +22 pts
1-2
15:25
T. Oshie(4)PPG
D. Strome (15), E. Kuznetsov (15)
snapxG 0.22win prob +19 pts
2-2
16:55

3rd period

N. Dowd(4)
A. Protas (2), N. Jensen (10)
snapxG 0.18win prob +30 pts
3-2
7:13

Penalties

2 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

7:01Darnell Nurse · Interferencedrawn by Nick Jensen2 min
11:18Evgeny Kuznetsov · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min

2nd

3:18Tyson Barrie · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Mantha2 min
14:57Evan Bouchard · Cross checkingdrawn by Erik Gustafsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Nic Dowd, 3rd 7:13 — WSH 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 4.8 xG · 61 att EDM

2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.83 G
All situations: 2 G2.3; 2.62 G
Even strength: 1 G1.6; 2.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.0; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

83%17%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.60 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

50
Shots on goal: 30; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 1/3
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 6; 27
Hits: 19; 15
Blocked shots: 14; 10
Giveaways: 19; 7
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	-1	7	0.26	0	4	0	—	23:43
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	3	0	—	22:17
3N. JensenD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	1	2	0	—	22:07
56E. GustafssonD	0	0	0	0	4	0.04	0	0	0	—	21:14
8A. OvechkinL	0	0	0	-1	5	0.35	7	0	0	—	21:11
92E. KuznetsovC	0	1	1	-2	2	0.23	0	0	2	60	19:56
77T. OshieR	1	0	1	-2	8	1.30	2	0	0	—	18:22
17D. StromeC	0	1	1	-1	6	1.14	1	0	0	63	16:40
20L. EllerC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.39	2	0	0	62	16:04
15S. MilanoL	0	1	1	0	0	0.03	4	1	0	—	15:54
73C. ShearyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	0	—	15:09
39A. ManthaR	0	0	0	+1	3	0.20	3	0	0	—	14:50
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	0	0	0	—	12:40
52M. IrwinD	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	3	1	0	—	12:33
27A. AlexeyevD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	0	0	—	12:16
26N. DowdC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.31	0	1	0	27	11:41
21G. HathawayR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	1	1	0	—	11:33
59A. ProtasL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.14	1	1	0	—	10:05

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
79C. Lindgren(W)	30	28	2	.933	2.25	+0.25	59:45

Season series

WSH leads 2-0

Nov 74@5Final
Dec 53@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score