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Maple Leafs at Penguins
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, TVAS·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 19:10 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 71% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.6 to 3.2; shots on goal were TOR 33, PIT 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Casey DeSmith stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (2 G, 1 A), 2. Auston Matthews (2 A), 3. Rickard Rakell (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Bunting2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    R. Rakell1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR28212113533
PITPIT07215015237

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(9)
    J. Benn (1), A. Kerfoot (5)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:04
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(4)
    M. Rielly (13), J. Tavares (9)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    15:04

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Bunting(3)
    A. Matthews (9), W. Nylander (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    0:11
  2. PIT
    R. Rakell(7)
    J. Zucker (10), E. Malkin (10)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    3-1
    0:54
  3. PIT
    S. Crosby(7)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    2:38
  4. TOR
    M. Bunting(4)
    P. Holmberg (1), A. Matthews (10)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    19:10

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(7)EN
    M. Bunting (5), M. Rielly (14)
    snapxG 0.58win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    17:37

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·PIT 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:19TORCalle Jarnkrok · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Poehling2 min

2nd

  • 4:02TORMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 6:40TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
  • 6:40PITJan Rutta · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 5:53TORDenis Malgin · High stickingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
  • 18:56PITJeff Carter · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalTOR goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 2nd 19:10 — TOR 71% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.40B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.18S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.17J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.17R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.15J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.12E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.12K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.10E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.09B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.09R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.08M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.08E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.08B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.08T. Blueger · Missed · xG 0.07K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.05K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.05E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.05K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.04S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.04E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.04D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02R. Poehling · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01T. Blueger · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT2 G · 3.2 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsPIT
3.64 G
All situations
2 G3.2
2.54 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR48%52%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 3.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsPIT
33
Shots on goal
37
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
25
Hits
50
27
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD022+320.03120—23:12
3J. HollD000+200.00430—22:17
55M. GiordanoD000+100.00282—21:49
18J. BennD011+230.40650—21:01
15A. KerfootC011+230.1101010017:24
37T. LiljegrenD000-100.01100—17:07
16M. MarnerR101+240.27000—16:52
88W. NylanderR112+120.71000—16:30
58M. BuntingL213+230.48022—15:57
34A. MatthewsC022+340.530205015:53
64D. KampfC000020.130004415:34
38R. SandinD000-100.00210—14:24
91J. TavaresC112+130.252105813:40
19C. JarnkrokC000000.13102013:13
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000-110.28010—13:04
62D. MalginC000-140.25312012:49
47P. EngvallL000010.03300—11:05
29P. HolmbergR011010.020001410:09
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)37352.9463.16+1.1660:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).