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Hurricanes at Avalanche
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Staal's goal at 13:55 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 12% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.1 to 2.3; shots on goal were CAR 25, COL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Antti Raanta stopped 24 of 27 (.889); Pavel Francouz stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 3 A), 2. Cale Makar (2 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0916010125
COLCOL21101027428

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(2)PPG
    M. Rantanen (11), N. MacKinnon (19)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    14:29
  2. COL
    C. Makar(3)
    M. Rantanen (12), A. Lehkonen (6)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    17:51

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(3)
    J. Martinook (4), J. Fast (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    13:55

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)
    M. Rantanen (13), D. Toews (9)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    4:17
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(10)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.44win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    17:50

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:51CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 5:43COLCale Makar · Interferencedrawn by Jesper Fast2 min
  • 10:19COLJosh Manson · Trippingdrawn by Jesperi Kotkaniemi2 min
  • 14:05CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 18:20CARJack Drury · Hookingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 2:50COLSampo Ranta · Holding the stickdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 6:42COLJosh Manson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 9:05CARJordan Martinook · Chargingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min

3rd

  • 14:36COLAlex Newhook · High stickingdrawn by Brady Skjei2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalCAR goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Staal, 2nd 13:55 — CAR 12% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.44S. Ranta · On goal · xG 0.23C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.17L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.14D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.13J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.13C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.12A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.11D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.10D. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08M. Kaut · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.04J. Megna · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.01
COL4 G · 3.1 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsCOL
2.31 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR43%57%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsCOL
25
Shots on goal
28
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/5
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
11
Hits
13
6
Blocked shots
17
4
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD000050.62010—25:37
22B. PesceD000-210.02110—22:30
74J. SlavinD000040.13000—22:18
88M. NecasC000-220.0510010021:09
20S. AhoC000-210.320026419:59
76B. SkjeiD000010.13000—18:53
37A. SvechnikovR000-120.16302—17:52
24S. JarvisR000000.09010—17:38
71J. FastR011010.0810010016:46
23S. NoesenR000-100.141005015:57
11J. StaalC101+120.170003614:46
48J. MartinookL011020.1400210013:58
18J. DruryC000-110.010028612:54
5J. ChatfieldD000-100.00210—12:49
82J. KotkaniemiC000020.181006011:21
26P. StastnyC000-100.00010010:39
44C. de HaanD000-100.00110—09:45
21D. StepanC000010.060005009:11
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Raanta(L)27243.8892.67-0.3359:34

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).