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San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues

FinalTV NBCSCA, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the San Jose Sharks 5-3. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Rosen's goal at 8:20 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were SJS 30, STL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 28 of 32 (.875); Jordan Binnington stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Calle Rosen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Robert Thomas (2 A), 3. Erik Karlsson (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    C. Rosen1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. Thomas2 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    E. Karlsson2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
SJSSJS11111019330
STLSTL1921826533

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:30
  2. SJS
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:19

2nd period

  1. STL
    J. Kyrou(4)PPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    6:59
  2. SJS
    wristxG 0.23win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    13:05
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.31win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    18:08

3rd period

  1. SJS
    tip-inxG 0.22win prob +24 pts
    3-3
    1:26
  2. STL
    slapxG 0.02win prob +29 pts
    3-4
    8:20
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.96win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:41

Penalties

SJS 4 PIM·STL 0 PIM

1st

  • 7:02SJSMario Ferraro · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min

2nd

  • 5:34SJSJaycob Megna · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalSJS goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Calle Rosen, 3rd 8:20 — STL 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Acciari · Goal · xG 0.96B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.31N. Alexandrov · On goal · xG 0.29R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.18P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.17N. Acciari · Missed · xG 0.17B. Saad · Missed · xG 0.16J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.15P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.13J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.13J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.12I. Barbashev · On goal · xG 0.12R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.10J. Leivo · On goal · xG 0.10J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.09V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.07B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.07V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.07P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.06P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.06C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.05N. Alexandrov · On goal · xG 0.05T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.05T. Pitlick · Missed · xG 0.05T. Krug · Goal · xG 0.04B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.04T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.03T. Krug · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.02C. Rosen · Goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.01J. Leivo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01N. Alexandrov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.00C. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.00
STL5 G · 4.6 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

SJSvsSTL
3.13 G
All situations
4 G4.6
3.13 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
SJS42%58%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.07 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

SJSvsSTL
30
Shots on goal
33
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/0
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
0
19
Hits
18
10
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
San Jose Sharks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD022+150.28100—27:03
24J. MegnaD000+100.00012—22:33
38M. FerraroD011010.23122—21:48
28T. MeierR101+140.45300—19:36
5M. BenningD000-100.23410—19:12
48T. HertlC101+120.360104117:55
62K. LabancR022030.42010—17:47
39L. CoutureC101-120.292005016:28
94A. BarabanovL000030.23000—16:03
44M. VlasicD000-210.03000—15:13
11L. KuninC000-120.061005015:06
83M. NietoL000020.1100010014:58
7N. SturmC000-110.052105014:18
23O. LindblomL000-110.130005014:00
13N. BoninoC000-100.000107813:08
51R. SimekD000010.02120—12:35
73N. GregorL000-120.11100—10:37
42J. GadjovichL000-100.15300—10:04
San Jose Sharks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36K. Kahkonen(L)32284.8753.60-0.4058:11

Season series

STL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).