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Blues at Predators
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
2
Nashville Predators
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the St. Louis Blues 6-2. The Blues scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zachary Sanford's goal at 16:24 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were STL 35, NSH 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.4 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (1 G, 2 A), 2. Zachary Sanford (1 G), 3. Michael McCarron (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    Z. Sanford1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. McCarron1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL18113014235
NSHNSH115210317642

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    R. Thomas(1)
    J. Faulk (3)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:07
  2. NSH
    T. Jeannot(3)
    Y. Trenin (2), R. Josi (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    16:56

2nd period

  1. STL
    B. Schenn(2)PPG
    C. Parayko (2), J. Faulk (4)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    6:24
  2. NSH
    M. McCarron(1)
    R. Josi (3), F. Forsberg (3)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    15:47
  3. NSH
    Z. Sanford(1)
    C. Smith (2)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +21 pts
    2-3
    16:24

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(3)
    F. Forsberg (4), M. Duchene (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    1:11
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(1)PPG
    F. Forsberg (5), M. Duchene (4)
    deflectedxG 0.25win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    13:06
  3. NSH
    M. Granlund(1)EN
    M. Duchene (5), C. Smith (3)
    wristxG 0.95
    2-6
    15:14

Penalties

STL 4 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:58NSHDante Fabbro · Hookingdrawn by Josh Leivo2 min
  • 14:52STLBrayden Schenn · Holdingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min

2nd

  • 4:28NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 7:05NSHDante Fabbro · High stickingdrawn by Noel Acciari2 min

3rd

  • 12:44STLNathan Walker · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalSTL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Zachary Sanford, 2nd 16:24 — NSH 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.95N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.31R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.25C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.19M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.16C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.16F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.15T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.13R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.13M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.12M. McCarron · Goal · xG 0.12Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.10M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.10R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.09Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.09M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.08D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.06C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.05D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Sanford · Goal · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.02M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH6 G · 4.6 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsNSH
3.12 G
All situations
5 G4.6
2.11 G
Even strength
4 G2.7
1.01 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 100 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL43%57%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.10 – 3.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsNSH
35
Shots on goal
42
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
25
Hits
35
19
Blocked shots
9
11
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4N. LeddyD000-100.00100—23:18
55C. ParaykoD011040.27120—22:55
72J. FaulkD022-360.38230—21:45
18R. ThomasC101-120.350105421:09
25J. KyrouR000-250.58010—20:22
47T. KrugD000-310.01010—19:47
91V. TarasenkoR000-210.36200—19:38
10B. SchennC101-420.18002018:36
90R. O'ReillyC000-330.240105317:25
63J. NeighboursL000-220.18100—15:27
52N. AcciariC000040.257005014:48
49I. BarbashevL000020.171303813:41
77N. MikkolaD000000.01220—13:41
43C. RosenD000020.04100—13:10
9T. PitlickC000000.05010012:30
26N. WalkerL000000.00432—11:09
13A. ToropchenkoR000000.00300—11:08
17J. LeivoL000010.06010—09:39
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1T. Greiss(L)41365.8783.64-1.3657:30

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).