Golden Knights at Sharks 4-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Vegas Golden Knights

▸4

San Jose Sharks

FinalTV ESPN·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the San Jose Sharks 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sharks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Karlsson's goal at 13:13 of the third period, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 48% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.4 to 2.3; shots on goal were VGK 31, SJS 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Adin Hill stopped 29 of 31 (.935); James Reimer stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Shea Theodore (1 G, 1 A), 2. Phil Kessel (1 G), 3. Matt Nieto (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Theodore1 G, 1 A
★★
P. Kessel1 G
★★★
M. Nieto1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	114	07	310	431
SJS	06	216	09	231

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

P. Kessel(1)
B. Howden (1)
wristxG 0.25win prob +15 pts
1-0
15:51

2nd period

N. Sturm(4)
K. Labanc (1), E. Svechnikov (2)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
1-1
5:33
M. Nieto(1)
T. Hertl (3)
wristxG 0.10win prob +23 pts
1-2
19:25

3rd period

S. Theodore(2)
B. McNabb (3), J. Marchessault (2)
wristxG 0.03win prob +23 pts
2-2
0:55
W. Karlsson(3)
R. Smith (4), A. Martinez (1)
wristxG 0.10win prob +37 pts
3-2
13:13
M. Stone(2)
C. Stephenson (4), S. Theodore (4)
snapxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
4-2
14:15

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

15:14Nico Sturm · Interferencedrawn by Chandler Stephenson2 min

3rd

1:56Nicolas Hague · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by James Reimer2 min
19:32Chandler Stephenson · Roughingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: SJS

Biggest swing: William Karlsson, 3rd 13:13 — VGK 48% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.3 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.4 xG · 42 att SJS

2 G · 2.3 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.44 G
All situations: 2 G2.3; 3.04 G
Even strength: 2 G2.1; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

64%36%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.06 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 31; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 14
Hits: 23; 27
Blocked shots: 19; 9
Giveaways: 6; 10
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Vegas Golden Knights skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7A. PietrangeloD	0	0	0	-2	4	0.12	0	2	0	—	23:04
23A. MartinezD	0	1	1	-1	1	0.10	0	4	0	—	20:45
61M. StoneR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.39	0	1	0	—	19:21
14N. HagueD	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	1	4	2	—	19:20
3B. McNabbD	0	1	1	+3	0	0.00	2	2	0	—	18:42
20C. StephensonC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.24	2	0	2	57	18:33
27S. TheodoreD	1	1	2	+3	4	0.14	0	3	0	—	18:27
2Z. WhitecloudD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	3	0	—	17:59
9J. EichelC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.28	0	1	0	47	17:29
19R. SmithR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.13	0	3	0	—	17:08
71W. KarlssonC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.39	0	2	0	56	16:53
81J. MarchessaultR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.46	0	0	0	—	16:41
10N. RoyC	0	0	0	0	0	0.15	2	0	0	27	14:29
21B. HowdenC	0	1	1	0	1	0.06	2	0	0	83	12:59
22M. AmadioR	0	0	0	0	0	0.11	0	0	0	25	12:48
8P. KesselR	1	0	1	0	3	0.38	0	0	0	—	12:40
28W. CarrierL	0	0	0	0	2	0.31	2	1	0	—	10:39
55K. KolesarR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	09:35

Vegas Golden Knights goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33A. Hill(W)	31	29	2	.935	2.28	+0.28	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score