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Flames at Oilers
NHL

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Edmonton Oilers
▸5
FinalTV ESPN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 5-3. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's goal at 16:33 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were CGY 32, EDM 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 0.5 goals below expected; Mike Smith stopped 29 of 32 (.906). Three stars: 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2 G), 2. Zach Hyman (1 G), 3. Elias Lindholm (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    Z. Hyman1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY01327112332
EDMEDM3907210526

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(3)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.21win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:21
  2. EDM
    Z. Hyman(7)PPG
    C. McDavid (18), L. Draisaitl (13)
    wristxG 0.35win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    9:53
  3. EDM
    E. Kane(11)
    L. Draisaitl (14), C. Ceci (6)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    18:54

2nd period

  1. CGY
    E. Lindholm(5)PPG
    N. Hanifin (3), T. Toffoli (3)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    9:04
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(4)
    C. Tanev (1)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    9:40

3rd period

  1. CGY
    R. Andersson(3)SHG
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.01win prob +33 pts
    3-3
    10:56
  2. EDM
    R. Nugent-Hopkins(4)
    T. Barrie (3), K. Yamamoto (4)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +39 pts
    3-4
    16:33
  3. EDM
    E. Kane(12)EN
    C. McDavid (19), L. Draisaitl (15)
    wristxG 0.59win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    19:35

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:37CGYTyler Toffoli · Trippingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

2nd

  • 8:11EDMZach Hyman · Trippingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 11:20EDMEvander Kane · Slashingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
  • 19:42EDMDarnell Nurse · Slashingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min

3rd

  • 8:59CGYserved by M. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:20CGYRasmus Andersson · High sticking double minordrawn by Ryan McLeod4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCGY goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 3rd 16:33 — EDM 52% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.59Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.35C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.33R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.22Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.21D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.21R. Nugent-Hopkins · Goal · xG 0.20D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.17R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.16R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Kassian · Missed · xG 0.13E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.12C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.11E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.10C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.09T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.08R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.05J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.02B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01
EDM5 G · 4.1 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsEDM
2.83 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.91 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.01 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY39%61%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.75 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsEDM
32
Shots on goal
26
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/3
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
40
Hits
42
11
Blocked shots
23
16
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55N. HanifinD011-120.12110—23:26
11M. BacklundC101+130.323007520:31
28E. LindholmC101+130.486005020:28
4R. AnderssonD101040.07104—20:08
58O. KylingtonD000020.11010—19:26
8C. TanevD011+100.00010—19:24
19M. TkachukL000-110.4310010019:17
13J. GaudreauL000-140.20000—18:48
20B. ColemanL000020.22500—16:59
88A. MangiapaneL000020.18410—16:04
73T. ToffoliC011010.45302015:56
44E. GudbransonD000-100.01120—14:58
16N. ZadorovD000060.10420—14:26
91C. JarnkrokC000-100.043004413:31
29D. DubeC000-100.00200013:01
22T. LewisC000-100.005205012:57
17M. LucicL000-110.020005010:53
26M. StoneD000-110.03110—05:02
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)25214.8403.49-0.5159:20

Series

EDM leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).