Oilers at Flames 5-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸5

Calgary Flames

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 5-3. The Oilers came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Hyman's goal at 10:14 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 41% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.8 to 2.8; shots on goal were EDM 40, CGY 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 37 of 40 (.925); Jacob Markstrom stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A), 2. Zach Hyman (1 G), 3. Johnny Gaudreau (2 A).

Three stars

★
C. McDavid1 G, 1 A
★★
Z. Hyman1 G
★★★
J. Gaudreau2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	114	215	211	540
CGY	212	113	015	340

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

M. Stone(2)
J. Gaudreau (10), M. Tkachuk (6)
slapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
0-1
3:02
B. Ritchie(2)
E. Gudbranson (1), T. Lewis (3)
backhandxG 0.19win prob +14 pts
0-2
6:02
D. Keith(1)
C. McDavid (14), L. Draisaitl (7)
wristxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
1-2
13:38

2nd period

T. Toffoli(2)PPG
E. Lindholm (4), J. Gaudreau (11)
wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
1-3
2:04
C. McDavid(6)
D. Keith (2), L. Draisaitl (8)
wristxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
2-3
3:05
E. Bouchard(2)PPG
D. Keith (3), E. Kane (3)
slapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
3-3
15:03

3rd period

Z. Hyman(5)SHG
R. Nugent-Hopkins (6)
wristxG 0.17win prob +34 pts
4-3
10:14
L. Draisaitl(7)
M. Smith (1)
wristxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
5-3
12:36

Penalties

22 PIM·

22 PIM

1st

6:44Blake Coleman · Roughingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
8:28Ryan McLeod · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min
8:28Tyler Toffoli · Roughingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
8:28Evander Kane · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
9:43Evan Bouchard · Roughingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
9:43Elias Lindholm · Roughingdrawn by Duncan Keith2 min
9:43Johnny Gaudreau · Embellishmentdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
19:08Nikita Zadorov · Hookingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min

2nd

1:10served by L. Draisaitl · Too many men on the ice2 min
2:04Matthew Tkachuk · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
2:04Darnell Nurse · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min
13:03Michael Stone · High sticking double minordrawn by Kailer Yamamoto4 min
15:20Andrew Mangiapane · Roughingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
15:20Zach Hyman · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
19:11Tyson Barrie · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
19:11Andrew Mangiapane · Roughingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
19:11Blake Coleman · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Mike Smith2 min

3rd

1:53Evander Kane · Cross checkingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
10:02Warren Foegele · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
16:48Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
20:00Darnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Zach Hyman, 3rd 10:14 — EDM 41% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.8 xG · 58 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 4.8 xG · 55 att CGY

3 G · 2.8 xG · 58 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.85 G
All situations: 3 G2.8; 2.13 G
Even strength: 2 G2.0; 1.71 G
Power play: 1 G0.8; 0.31 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 113 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

69%31%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.05 – 2.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

40
Shots on goal: 40; 33%
Faceoffs: 67%; 1/6
Power play: 1/5; 22
Penalty minutes: 22; 27
Hits: 40; 17
Blocked shots: 13; 14
Giveaways: 13; 5
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	1	1	0	1	0.18	2	0	2	17	24:33
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	3	2	4	—	23:21
29L. DraisaitlC	1	2	3	+3	3	0.50	0	0	0	42	23:16
18Z. HymanL	1	0	1	0	6	0.87	2	3	2	50	23:14
5C. CeciD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	1	0	—	22:29
97C. McDavidC	1	1	2	+3	5	0.99	4	1	0	0	21:30
91E. KaneL	0	1	1	+2	3	0.95	2	0	4	—	19:27
2D. KeithD	1	2	3	+1	2	0.09	0	1	0	—	18:25
22T. BarrieD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	0	2	2	—	17:43
75E. BouchardD	1	0	1	+1	5	0.39	1	1	2	—	17:15
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	4	2	0	—	15:48
71R. McLeodC	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	1	2	30	15:07
27B. KulakD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	12:43
13J. PuljujarviR	0	0	0	-1	4	0.33	1	1	0	—	08:41
10D. RyanC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	2	0	31	08:24
37W. FoegeleL	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	2	0	2	100	08:14
15J. ArchibaldR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	04:39
44Z. KassianR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	04:17

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(W)	40	37	3	.925	2.81	-0.19	60:00

Series

EDM leads 4-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score