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Blackhawks at Sabres
NHL

Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Chicago Blackhawks
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Final/OTTV NBCSCH, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in overtime, Casey Mittelstadt scoring at 2:07. The Blackhawks scored first; the Sabres answered. The Blackhawks led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 2:07 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were CHI 21, BUF 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Collin Delia stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Dustin Tokarski stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G), 2. Owen Power (1 G), 3. Dustin Tokarski (19 saves, .905).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    O. Power1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    D. Tokarski19 saves, .905

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CHICHI09181400221
BUFBUF0100721415336

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. CHI
    D. Kubalik(15)
    A. Vlasic (1), T. Johnson (4)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +19 pts
    1-0
    8:47

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(38)
    J. Skinner (30)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +27 pts
    1-1
    4:16
  2. CHI
    D. Strome(22)
    C. Jones (10), A. DeBrincat (37)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +32 pts
    2-1
    9:33
  3. BUF
    O. Power(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    14:22

Overtime

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(6)
    D. Cozens (25), H. Jokiharju (16)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    2:07

Penalties

CHI 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:54CHISam Lafferty · Hookingdrawn by Anders Bjork2 min
  • 9:58BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Philipp Kurashev2 min

2nd

  • 18:13CHIJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

3rd

  • 9:59CHIAlex Vlasic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, OT 2:07 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.23T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.19J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.18O. Power · Goal · xG 0.15M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.14D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.14A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.07A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.04D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 3.1 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CHIvsBUF
1.92 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CHI30%70%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.92 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CHIvsBUF
21
Shots on goal
36
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
9
Hits
8
8
Blocked shots
3
12
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Chicago Blackhawks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4S. JonesD000+120.11210—26:17
12A. DeBrincatR011-130.241005021:45
88P. KaneR000-110.16000—21:08
43A. VlasicD011+100.00012—20:29
82C. JonesD011-110.10010—19:33
6J. McCabeD000020.03112—19:24
17D. StromeC101-120.351004018:45
61R. StillmanD000-110.03010—18:03
19J. ToewsC000+100.100005817:49
56E. GustafssonD000-110.02020—16:43
24S. LaffertyC000020.152024416:14
8D. KubalikL101+120.33000—15:21
11T. RaddyshR000-110.05010—14:36
90T. JohnsonC011+120.10100013:48
23P. KurashevC000-100.0000010013:41
52R. JohnsonC000000.001006011:05
14B. KatchoukL000000.00000—07:51
13H. BorgstromC000010.15000007:48
Chicago Blackhawks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60C. Delia(O)36333.9173.08+0.0862:07

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).