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Sabres at Blackhawks
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
Chicago Blackhawks
5
FinalTV MSG-B, NBCSCH+·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Chicago Blackhawks 6-5. The Sabres came back from 4 goals down. The Blackhawks led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 19:48 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 54% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.8 to 1.5; shots on goal were BUF 37, CHI 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 16 of 21 (.762), 3.5 goals below expected; Kevin Lankinen stopped 31 of 37 (.838), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Victor Olofsson (2 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF08315314637
CHICHI381518521

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. CHI
    C. de Haan(2)
    T. Raddysh (10), D. Kubalik (12)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:53
  2. CHI
    S. Lafferty(5)
    J. McCabe (15), R. Johnson (4)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    13:44
  3. CHI
    J. Toews(10)PPG
    P. Kurashev (12), D. Kubalik (13)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    16:55

2nd period

  1. CHI
    S. Jones(5)
    A. DeBrincat (26), D. Strome (21)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    1:21
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(13)PPG
    D. Cozens (20), H. Jokiharju (11)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    4:50
  3. BUF
    V. Olofsson(14)
    J. Skinner (20)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    10:24
  4. BUF
    K. Okposo(17)
    D. Cozens (21), W. Butcher (5)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    14:32

3rd period

  1. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(11)
    R. Dahlin (33), T. Thompson (23)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +24 pts
    4-4
    2:39
  2. CHI
    A. DeBrincat(38)PPG
    P. Kane (58), D. Strome (22)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +26 pts
    4-5
    10:56
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(9)
    V. Olofsson (19), C. Mittelstadt (9)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +40 pts
    5-5
    17:46
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(28)PPG
    R. Dahlin (34), A. Tuch (19)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +45 pts
    6-5
    19:48

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·CHI 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:22BUFCasey Fitzgerald · Trippingdrawn by Philipp Kurashev2 min

2nd

  • 3:24CHICaleb Jones · Holdingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

3rd

  • 6:35CHIBoris Katchouk · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 9:40BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Cross checkingdrawn by Sam Lafferty2 min
  • 18:51CHIDylan Strome · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CHI goalBUF goalFinal: CHI 0%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 3rd 19:48 — BUF 54% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Strome · On goal · xG 0.15J. Toews · Goal · xG 0.14S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.12B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.11S. Jones · Goal · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.08R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.07J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.05B. Katchouk · On goal · xG 0.05C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.04S. Lafferty · Goal · xG 0.04S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.03C. de Haan · Goal · xG 0.03R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Katchouk · Missed · xG 0.02J. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.02S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01
CHI5 G · 1.5 xG · 25 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCHI
2.86 G
All situations
5 G1.5
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G0.7
0.22 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF75%25%CHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 1.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCHI
37
Shots on goal
21
49%
Faceoffs
51%
2/3
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
33
13
Blocked shots
21
7
Giveaways
13
10
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD022+250.23200—26:10
10H. JokiharjuD011+110.06220—22:36
53J. SkinnerL011+140.36000—18:16
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.02320—18:09
72T. ThompsonC112030.250101717:58
37C. MittelstadtC011+130.241006717:08
45C. FitzgeraldD000030.08412—16:50
78J. BrysonD000-110.02000—16:44
21K. OkposoR101+130.37100—16:16
89A. TuchR112020.42230—16:05
4W. ButcherD011+110.09010—15:09
71V. OlofssonL213+150.33000—14:53
29V. HinostrozaC101010.04402014:35
19P. KrebsC000020.15020014:02
20C. EakinC000000.000004213:45
24D. CozensC022010.111005313:25
74R. AsplundC000-100.00100012:42
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.04310012:28
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(W)21165.7621.47-3.5360:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).