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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

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Ottawa Senators
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Sabres scored first; the Senators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Austin Watson's goal at 10:49 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.8 to 1.8; shots on goal were OTT 28, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Austin Watson (1 G), 2. Nick Holden (2 A), 3. Zachary Sanford (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Watson1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    N. Holden2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    Z. Sanford1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0121828328
BUFBUF11001004124

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(11)PPG
    R. Asplund (12), R. Dahlin (24)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    13:37

2nd period

  1. OTT
    Z. Sanford(8)
    T. Ennis (14), A. Zub (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +21 pts
    1-1
    16:04

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. Watson(3)
    N. Holden (6), D. Gambrell (3)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +33 pts
    2-1
    10:49
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(16)EN
    N. Holden (7)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +5 pts
    3-1
    19:43

Penalties

OTT 17 PIM·BUF 19 PIM

1st

  • 2:57BUFJohn Hayden · Misconductdrawn by Austin Watson10 min
  • 2:57OTTAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by John Hayden5 min
  • 2:57BUFJohn Hayden · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 2:57BUFJohn Hayden · Instigatordrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 5:49OTTErik Brannstrom · High stickingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 9:49OTTDylan Gambrell · Slashingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 12:32OTTErik Brannstrom · Trippingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min

2nd

  • 3:50OTTArtem Zub · Hookingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 5:15BUFDylan Cozens · Holdingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min
  • 6:50OTTErik Brannstrom · Holdingdrawn by John Hayden2 min
  • 16:42OTTTyler Ennis · Interferencedrawn by John Hayden2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Austin Watson, 3rd 10:49 — OTT 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.22M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.18K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.18A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.17A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.16K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.11K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fitzgerald · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 1.8 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
2.82 G
All situations
1 G1.8
2.22 G
Even strength
0 G0.7
0.30 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.42 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
24
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
1/6
17
Penalty minutes
19
13
Hits
12
12
Blocked shots
13
3
Giveaways
4
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5N. HoldenD022+200.04020—25:15
22N. ZaitsevD000+210.05210—22:50
28C. BrownR000+130.1201010021:44
21N. PaulL000+110.260006219:33
2A. ZubD011+110.02012—19:27
7B. TkachukL101+170.683006719:06
3J. BrownD000010.03200—18:03
26E. BrannstromD000+100.00026—17:31
18T. StützleC000000.000002216:04
10A. FormentonL000050.35010—15:52
98V. MeteD000010.35000—14:37
71C. TierneyC000+100.000004013:56
13Z. SanfordL101+130.33120—13:52
17A. GaudetteR000000.001006013:18
63T. EnnisR011+130.31002—12:24
16A. WatsonL101+110.05115—10:44
27D. GambrellC011+110.220027507:30
45P. KellyC000+100.00310007:09
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(W)24231.9581.83+0.8360:00

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).