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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
0
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-0. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Ennis's goal at 15:53 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 54% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.7 to 1.9; shots on goal were BUF 32, OTT 47. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Aaron Dell stopped 42 of 47 (.894), 1.3 goals below expected; Matt Murray stopped 32 of 32 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Ennis (3 G), 2. Matt Murray (32 saves, 1.000), 3. Tim Stützle (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Ennis3 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    M. Murray32 saves, 1.000
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF011011010032
OTTOTT311117119547

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(2)
    A. Gaudette (4), J. Brown (2)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    15:53
  2. OTT
    D. Batherson(13)PPG
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    17:11
  3. OTT
    T. Ennis(3)
    C. Tierney (5), A. Gaudette (5)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    18:48

2nd period

  1. OTT
    A. Formenton(8)
    T. Stützle (13), B. Tkachuk (15)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    11:15

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Ennis(4)
    J. Brown (3), L. Thomson (4)
    wristxG 0.02
    0-5
    19:30

Penalties

BUF 12 PIM·OTT 14 PIM

1st

  • 4:54BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 11:43OTTJoshua Brown · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 16:01BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min

2nd

  • 3:47OTTAustin Watson · Slashingdrawn by Aaron Dell2 min
  • 3:47BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min
  • 14:59OTTChris Tierney · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 19:15BUFVictor Olofsson · Hookingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min

3rd

  • 4:25OTTAustin Watson · Roughingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 4:25OTTZachary Sanford · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 4:25BUFDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 8:20OTTTyler Ennis · Slashingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 12:23BUFRobert Hagg · Hookingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 16:37OTTJosh Norris · High stickingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Ennis, 1st 15:53 — OTT 54% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.19Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.19A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.15A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.15B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.14T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.14D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.11T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.10Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.10J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.07A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.05T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.05N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.04A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.03T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.02T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.02T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.02N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.02A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.01A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.00A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.00N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.00C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 3.7 xG · 63 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
1.90 G
All situations
5 G3.7
1.10 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.80 G
Power play
1 G1.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF22%78%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 3.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
32
Shots on goal
47
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/5
Power play
1/4
12
Penalty minutes
14
23
Hits
38
17
Blocked shots
9
3
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-150.24422—24:06
10H. JokiharjuD000-120.07200—21:50
89A. TuchR000-150.26200—18:34
19P. KrebsC000-120.171005018:08
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.07130—17:48
53J. SkinnerL000-130.2600210017:32
72T. ThompsonC000-130.322004717:05
37C. MittelstadtC000-110.100122716:52
24D. CozensC000-140.202125016:36
13M. PysykD000-100.00220—16:08
8R. HaggD000-210.02322—15:54
74R. AsplundC000-110.02010015:51
78J. BrysonD000-200.00020—14:44
71V. OlofssonL000-100.00012—14:08
96A. BjorkL000-200.00010—12:50
28Z. GirgensonsC000-140.12110011:25
17M. JankowskiL000-100.001003811:00
20C. EakinC000000.001002710:32
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80A. Dell(L)47425.8943.66-1.3459:47

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).