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Islanders at Penguins
NHL

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
3
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸6
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, MSG+·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the New York Islanders 6-3. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Danton Heinen's goal at 8:52 of the first period, which took the Penguins' chances from 65% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.1 to 2.6; shots on goal were NYI 39, PIT 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.7 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 36 of 39 (.923). Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (2 G, 2 A), 2. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 2 A), 3. Kris Letang (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    K. Letang1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI010119210339
PITPIT21315310628

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    K. Letang(8)
    J. Guentzel (40), S. Crosby (50)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:59
  2. PIT
    D. Heinen(16)
    B. Boyle (9), T. Blueger (14)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    8:52

2nd period

  1. NYI
    Z. Parise(14)
    M. Barzal (36)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    5:51
  2. PIT
    J. Guentzel(36)
    S. Crosby (51)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    12:10

3rd period

  1. PIT
    S. Crosby(29)
    J. Guentzel (41), M. Matheson (18)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    10:44
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(26)
    B. Nelson (20)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +1 pts
    2-4
    17:23
  3. PIT
    B. McGinn(12)EN
    J. Carter (23), T. Blueger (15)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    17:59
  4. NYI
    Z. Chara(1)
    B. Nelson (21)
    slapxG 0.02
    3-5
    18:52
  5. PIT
    J. Guentzel(37)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.92
    3-6
    19:50

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·PIT 10 PIM

1st

  • 6:46PITDanton Heinen · Slashingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
  • 13:26PITMark Friedman · High sticking double minordrawn by Casey Cizikas4 min
  • 14:37NYIZach Parise · High stickingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min

2nd

  • 12:13PITBrock McGinn · Interferencedrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
  • 18:01NYIAdam Pelech · Cross checkingdrawn by Teddy Blueger2 min

3rd

  • 1:24PITSidney Crosby · Roughingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 11:49NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalNYI goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Danton Heinen, 1st 8:52 — PIT 65% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. McGinn · Goal · xG 0.95J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.92D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.21D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.16R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.16R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.16S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.15R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.11S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.11J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.11D. Heinen · Goal · xG 0.11R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.10B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.06R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.05M. Friedman · On goal · xG 0.05M. Friedman · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.04S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02M. Friedman · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · Goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.00K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT6 G · 4.1 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsPIT
2.63 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.73 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI56%44%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsPIT
39
Shots on goal
28
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/5
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
33
Hits
24
12
Blocked shots
19
1
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD000-430.14230—23:47
13M. BarzalC011-250.382005022:03
6R. PulockD000-170.26610—21:24
3A. PelechD000020.04114—19:52
44J. PageauC000-310.126105619:47
29B. NelsonC022010.050103318:42
33Z. CharaD101-120.17110—17:49
12J. BaileyR000-410.03110—17:26
27A. LeeL101-130.35100—17:08
11Z. PariseL101-130.27002—16:03
18A. BeauvillierR000010.07000—15:19
4A. GreeneD000+200.01000—15:12
21K. PalmieriC000-230.21000014:31
53C. CizikasC000-100.000107312:50
7G. HuttonD000+120.03110—12:44
20K. BellowsL000020.06610—11:31
17M. MartinL000030.41300—10:33
32R. JohnstonL000000.00300—08:32
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)26224.8462.27-1.7358:47

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).