Penguins at Islanders 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Pittsburgh Penguins

▸1

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the New York Islanders 1-0. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kasperi Kapanen's goal at 16:41 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 2.8 to 1.8; shots on goal were PIT 30, NYI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 25 of 25 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Tristan Jarry (25 saves, 1.000), 2. Ilya Sorokin (29 saves, .967), 3. Danton Heinen.

Three stars

★
T. Jarry25 saves, 1.000
★★
I. Sorokin29 saves, .967
★★★
D. Heinen

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	012	111	07	130
NYI	06	08	011	025

Scoring

1 goal

2nd period

K. Kapanen(5)
S. Crosby (2), J. Guentzel (9)
wristxG 0.12win prob +22 pts
1-0
16:41

Penalties

8 PIM·

6 PIM

2nd

13:42Jake Guentzel · Trippingdrawn by Oliver Wahlstrom2 min

3rd

2:23Scott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
6:30Brian Dumoulin · High stickingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
9:04Matt Martin · Roughingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
9:04Cal Clutterbuck · Roughingdrawn by Marcus Pettersson2 min
9:04Kris Letang · Roughingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
9:04Marcus Pettersson · Roughingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Kasperi Kapanen, 2nd 16:41 — PIT 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 33 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.8 xG · 45 att NYI

0 G · 1.8 xG · 33 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.81 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 2.71 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

69%31%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 1.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 25; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 8
Penalty minutes: 6; 20
Hits: 29; 13
Blocked shots: 18; 15
Giveaways: 15; 3
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
58K. LetangD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	1	2	—	24:32
8B. DumoulinD	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	1	3	2	—	23:14
6J. MarinoD	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	0	0	0	—	23:02
28M. PetterssonD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.24	3	1	2	—	19:10
87S. CrosbyC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.50	0	0	0	29	18:36
9E. RodriguesC	0	0	0	0	1	0.29	0	0	0	0	18:21
59J. GuentzelC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.31	1	0	2	0	18:13
77J. CarterC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	50	17:49
53T. BluegerC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	1	0	56	16:52
16J. ZuckerL	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	2	1	0	—	15:55
42K. KapanenR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.45	3	0	0	—	15:18
23B. McGinnL	0	0	0	0	4	0.21	1	0	0	—	15:15
2C. RuhwedelD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	0	0	—	14:23
5M. MathesonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	3	0	—	14:14
12Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	0	2	0.24	6	0	0	—	13:58
11B. BoyleC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	38	11:20
43D. HeinenL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	08:10
49D. SimonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	0	07:41

Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35T. Jarry(W)	25	25	0	1.000	1.84	+1.84	59:57

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Nov 261@0this game
Apr 124@5SOFinal
Apr 143@6Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders

2nd period

2nd

3rd

Box score