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Avalanche at Penguins
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
Pittsburgh Penguins
4
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, ALT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-4. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was J.T. Compher's goal at 9:53 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.5 to 3.2; shots on goal were COL 32, PIT 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 41 of 45 (.911), 0.5 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 2. Andre Burakovsky (2 A), 3. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    A. Burakovsky2 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL111210311632
PITPIT119110216445

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(23)
    A. Burakovsky (31), M. Rantanen (48)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:45
  2. PIT
    B. Rust(23)
    M. Pettersson (15), J. Guentzel (37)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:30

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Compher(14)
    A. Newhook (14), D. Toews (38)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    9:53
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(24)
    A. Burakovsky (32), M. Rantanen (49)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    12:00
  3. PIT
    E. Rodrigues(18)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.42win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    17:43

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Manson(5)
    D. Toews (39), J. Compher (11)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    1:01
  2. COL
    D. Helm(7)
    L. O'Connor (15)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +2 pts
    5-2
    15:03
  3. PIT
    J. Guentzel(33)
    J. Carter (22), E. Malkin (19)
    backhandxG 0.11
    5-3
    18:36
  4. COL
    A. Lehkonen(14)EN
    D. Helm (6), D. Toews (40)
    wristxG 0.65
    6-3
    19:07
  5. PIT
    M. Matheson(11)
    D. Heinen (14), B. Boyle (7)
    wristxG 0.02
    6-4
    19:29

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·PIT 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:04PITBrian Dumoulin · Hookingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 9:20COLBowen Byram · Hookingdrawn by Brian Dumoulin2 min

2nd

  • 14:06PITRickard Rakell · Trippingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 14:52COLNathan MacKinnon · Roughingdrawn by John Marino2 min

3rd

  • 15:39PITEvan Rodrigues · Holdingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalCOL goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: J.T. Compher, 2nd 9:53 — COL 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.42B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.21J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.18E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.16B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.13B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.12B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.11R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.10T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.10T. Blueger · Missed · xG 0.09S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.09B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.08J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.07S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.07B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.06C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.04B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.03J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.03E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · Goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.01B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.00B. Boyle · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT4 G · 3.5 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsPIT
3.25 G
All situations
4 G3.5
1.95 G
Even strength
4 G2.7
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL35%65%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 3.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsPIT
32
Shots on goal
45
37%
Faceoffs
63%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
31
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
11
11
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000+160.17010—28:19
7D. ToewsD033+210.18000—24:27
29N. MacKinnonC202-130.354022121:41
96M. RantanenR022-110.100104321:26
95A. BurakovskyL022040.43110—20:05
3J. JohnsonD000+110.03210—19:56
62A. LehkonenL101+330.82110—18:28
37J. CompherL112+320.321004317:49
42J. MansonD101-120.05320—16:37
18A. NewhookC011+240.342103316:30
78N. SturmC000010.064105015:44
4B. ByramD000-120.12312—15:02
25L. O'ConnorR011+100.02200—14:26
11A. CoglianoC000000.00210013:05
6E. JohnsonD000+210.00010—12:55
43D. HelmC112+110.161002509:57
16N. Aube-KubelR000-100.00400—06:25
56K. MacDermidL000-100.00100—03:47
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(W)45414.9113.46-0.5459:21

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).