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Penguins at Avalanche
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
FinalTV ABC, ESPN+·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Devon Toews's goal at 15:34 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals were close — PIT 2.7, COL 2.8; shots on goal were PIT 40, COL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 35 of 38 (.921), 0.7 goals below expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 38 of 40 (.950), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Darcy Kuemper (38 saves, .950), 2. Devon Toews (1 G), 3. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    D. Kuemper38 saves, .950
  2. ★★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT01711518240
COLCOL011213114338

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. COL
    M. Rantanen(35)
    A. Burakovsky (30), N. MacKinnon (49)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +19 pts
    0-1
    9:59
  2. PIT
    S. Crosby(26)
    K. Letang (53), J. Guentzel (35)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +20 pts
    1-1
    14:46
  3. COL
    N. Aube-Kubel(8)
    A. Newhook (13), N. Sturm (9)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    1-2
    15:06

3rd period

  1. PIT
    M. Matheson(10)
    J. Guentzel (36)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    15:07
  2. COL
    D. Toews(13)
    N. MacKinnon (50), M. Rantanen (47)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +38 pts
    2-3
    15:34

Penalties

PIT 0 PIM·COL 2 PIM

3rd

  • 15:50COLDarren Helm · Holdingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalPIT goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Devon Toews, 3rd 15:34 — COL 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.48N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.17N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.16J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.15D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.14N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.14V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05N. Aube-Kubel · Goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.04V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsCOL
2.72 G
All situations
3 G2.8
2.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT57%43%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 2.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsCOL
40
Shots on goal
38
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
17
Hits
20
6
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD011-160.14100—26:52
8B. DumoulinD000-110.04100—22:27
59J. GuentzelC022+120.30020021:45
17B. RustR000+170.52100—21:21
5M. MathesonD101040.05100—20:17
87S. CrosbyC101+140.541005820:04
71E. MalkinC000-220.290002919:21
6J. MarinoD000010.07010—18:57
77J. CarterC000-110.052005617:50
67R. RakellR000-220.20100—16:51
9E. RodriguesC000030.31000016:33
42K. KapanenR000-140.13100—15:56
53T. BluegerC000010.012005015:20
2C. RuhwedelD000010.00110—14:21
52M. FriedmanD000010.01010—13:08
11B. BoyleC000000.001102507:51
57A. AngelloC000000.00400006:34
43D. HeinenL000000.00000—06:04
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(L)38353.9212.32-0.6858:28

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).