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Maple Leafs at Flyers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
Philadelphia Flyers
3
FinalTV NBCSP, SN·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 7:41 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.5, PHI 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 28, PHI 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.6 goals below expected; Carter Hart stopped 22 of 28 (.786), 3.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Morgan Rielly (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 A), 3. Ivan Provorov (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Rielly1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    I. Provorov2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR06212410628
PHIPHI01121318332

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. PHI
    K. Hayes(8)
    I. Provorov (16), O. Lindblom (12)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    3:56
  2. TOR
    W. Simmonds(5)
    T. Brodie (18)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +19 pts
    1-1
    10:23
  3. TOR
    T. Liljegren(3)
    M. Giordano (19), M. Bunting (32)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    11:32
  4. PHI
    I. Provorov(6)
    K. Hayes (15)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    14:33

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(51)
    M. Marner (52), M. Rielly (48)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +30 pts
    3-2
    7:41
  2. TOR
    P. Engvall(12)SHG
    M. Rielly (49)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    11:43
  3. PHI
    I. Provorov(7)
    P. Brown (4), Z. MacEwen (5)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    4-3
    12:23
  4. TOR
    M. Rielly(9)
    M. Bunting (33), M. Marner (53)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    5-3
    13:47
  5. TOR
    J. Tavares(24)
    W. Nylander (38)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +2 pts
    6-3
    15:49

Penalties

TOR 9 PIM·PHI 7 PIM

1st

  • 11:05TORIlya Lyubushkin · Trippingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min

2nd

  • 4:47PHIIvan Provorov · Holdingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min

3rd

  • 9:50TORJustin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Joel Farabee2 min
  • 17:16TORWayne Simmonds · Fightingdrawn by Zack MacEwen5 min
  • 17:16PHIZack MacEwen · Fightingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalTOR goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 7:41 — TOR 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. MacEwen · Missed · xG 0.32I. Provorov · Goal · xG 0.20C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.19T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.18M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.17N. Cates · Missed · xG 0.15K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.14M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.12T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.07O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.06K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.06I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.05Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.05I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.04N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.04J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.04O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.04N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.03N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.03O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.03I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.03T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.02N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Goal · xG 0.02N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02C. Atkinson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02R. Attard · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.01Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 2.4 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsPHI
2.56 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.15 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR53%47%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsPHI
28
Shots on goal
32
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/1
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
7
19
Hits
21
15
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD123+260.14100—23:21
46I. LyubushkinD000+100.00212—21:56
78T. BrodieD011+100.00100—20:04
34A. MatthewsC101040.330205619:40
3J. HollD000+110.01002—19:33
16M. MarnerR022+110.38000—18:33
55M. GiordanoD011+100.00220—18:16
88W. NylanderR011000.0601010017:36
64D. KampfC000-100.002006017:16
47P. EngvallL101+120.1902010016:53
58M. BuntingL022+110.13210—16:53
65I. MikheyevR000+130.51100—16:36
91J. TavaresC101+240.470106315:13
37T. LiljegrenD101020.02130—15:12
15A. KerfootC000+120.15110012:49
11C. BlackwellC000+210.011105709:44
26N. AbruzzeseC000000.00000009:05
24W. SimmondsR101010.14505—07:20
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)32293.9062.39-0.6160:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).