Jets at Maple Leafs 3-7 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸7

FinalTV TSN3, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 7-3. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ilya Mikheyev's goal at 13:55 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 68% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 5.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were WPG 23, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 31 of 37 (.838), 1.5 goals below expected; Erik Kallgren stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 2. William Nylander (2 G, 1 A), 3. Ilya Mikheyev (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

★
A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
★★
W. Nylander2 G, 1 A
★★★
I. Mikheyev1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	28	15	010	323
TOR	112	413	213	738

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

B. Wheeler(12)
Z. Sanford (10)
wristxG 0.19win prob +12 pts
1-0
3:19
P. Stastny(18)
N. Ehlers (19), M. Scheifele (37)
wrap-aroundxG 0.39win prob +15 pts
2-0
7:45
M. Giordano(7)
I. Mikheyev (6), T. Liljegren (17)
wristxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
2-1
15:03

2nd period

W. Nylander(25)PPG
A. Matthews (37), M. Marner (49)
wristxG 0.37win prob +12 pts
2-2
1:58
N. Ehlers(21)PPG
J. Morrissey (20), M. Scheifele (38)
wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
3-2
3:45
J. Tavares(23)
C. Dahlstrom (1), I. Mikheyev (7)
wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
3-3
4:08
W. Nylander(26)PPG
M. Marner (50), M. Rielly (47)
tip-inxG 0.31win prob +14 pts
3-4
8:40
I. Mikheyev(15)SHG
P. Engvall (13), J. Holl (14)
wristxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
3-5
13:55

3rd period

A. Matthews(50)EN
M. Marner (51)
wristxG 0.50win prob +1 pts
3-6
17:54
T. Liljegren(2)PPG
W. Nylander (37), M. Giordano (18)
slapxG 0.14
3-7
18:14

Penalties

39 PIM·

23 PIM

1st

9:37Blake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
11:45Ville Heinola · Hookingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min
18:46John Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min

2nd

1:40Mason Appleton · Trippingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min
3:23Justin Holl · Delaying game smothering puck2 min
7:32Pierre-Luc Dubois · Trippingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min
13:02Morgan Rielly · Slashingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

3rd

8:16Paul Stastny · Holdingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
14:12Pierre Engvall · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
14:12Pierre-Luc Dubois · Roughingdrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
18:08Kyle Clifford · Fightingdrawn by Brenden Dillon5 min
18:08Brenden Dillon · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Clifford5 min
18:08Adam Lowry · Misconductdrawn by Wayne Simmonds10 min
18:08Dominic Toninato · Chargingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
18:08Wayne Simmonds · Misconductdrawn by Adam Lowry10 min
18:14Mason Appleton · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev, 2nd 13:55 — TOR 68% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

7 G · 5.5 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 34 att TOR

7 G · 5.5 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.63 G
All situations: 6 G5.5; 2.12 G
Even strength: 2 G2.1; 0.51 G
Power play: 3 G2.3; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

24%76%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 4.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 38; 45%
Faceoffs: 55%; 1/3
Power play: 3/6; 39
Penalty minutes: 23; 42
Hits: 34; 15
Blocked shots: 8; 8
Giveaways: 13; 6
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	1	1	0	3	0.21	5	3	0	—	24:35
80P. DuboisC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	2	4	42	21:49
26B. WheelerR	1	0	1	-1	2	0.27	2	0	2	—	21:12
4N. PionkD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	20:54
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	2	1	0	—	20:47
55M. ScheifeleC	0	2	2	-2	2	0.33	0	2	0	38	20:31
25P. StastnyC	1	0	1	-1	4	0.99	0	0	2	45	20:23
27N. EhlersL	1	1	2	-2	3	0.20	4	0	0	—	19:25
14V. HeinolaD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	2	0	2	—	17:32
13Z. SanfordL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.09	5	0	0	—	17:18
64L. StanleyD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	1	3	0	—	16:07
5B. DillonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	5	1	5	—	15:57
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	1	12	0	13:31
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	2	0	10	40	12:41
71E. SvechnikovL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	2	0	0	—	08:53
21D. ToninatoC	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	2	1	2	100	08:30
12J. HarkinsC	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	1	0	0	0	06:36
36M. BarronC	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	0	0	100	05:03

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1E. Comrie(L)	37	31	6	.838	4.47	-1.53	58:44

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 53@6Final
Mar 313@7this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score