Maple Leafs at Jets 3-6 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

Winnipeg Jets

▸6

FinalTV TSN3, TSN4·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Copp's goal at 1:51 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.9 to 3.5; shots on goal were TOR 35, WPG 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 2.1 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Blake Wheeler (2 A), 2. Pierre-Luc Dubois (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
B. Wheeler2 A
★★
P. Dubois1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Scheifele1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	112	211	012	335
WPG	113	412	116	641

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

P. Dubois(12)PPG
B. Wheeler (11), M. Scheifele (8)
backhandxG 0.17win prob +10 pts
0-1
4:05
M. Bunting(7)PPG
P. Engvall (6), N. Ritchie (7)
snapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
1-1
16:08

2nd period

A. Copp(7)
N. Pionk (13), N. Schmidt (12)
backhandxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
1-2
1:51
E. Svechnikov(2)
D. Toninato (2), J. Harkins (3)
wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
1-3
4:54
K. Connor(15)PPG
P. Dubois (10), B. Wheeler (12)
wristxG 0.11win prob +7 pts
1-4
7:38
N. Ehlers(9)
A. Copp (13), N. Schmidt (13)
slapxG 0.18win prob +4 pts
1-5
10:45
A. Matthews(15)PPG
J. Tavares (15), W. Nylander (14)
wristxG 0.12win prob +3 pts
2-5
14:20
O. Kase(6)
R. Sandin (8), J. Holl (1)
wristxG 0.02win prob +7 pts
3-5
15:46

3rd period

M. Scheifele(6)PPG
K. Connor (12), N. Pionk (14)
wristxG 0.16win prob +3 pts
3-6
8:14

Penalties

31 PIM·

21 PIM

1st

3:05Wayne Simmonds · Slashingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min
5:01Jake Muzzin · Holdingdrawn by Kristian Vesalainen2 min
14:12Pierre-Luc Dubois · Trippingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
18:55Nate Schmidt · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

2nd

6:18Michael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
12:31Dominic Toninato · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
13:28Blake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min

3rd

4:30Auston Matthews · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min
4:30Pierre-Luc Dubois · Roughingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
7:30Wayne Simmonds · Cross checkingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min
7:30Wayne Simmonds · Misconduct10 min
13:51Kyle Clifford · Fightingdrawn by Brenden Dillon5 min
13:51Brenden Dillon · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Clifford5 min
16:44Michael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min
16:44Jansen Harkins · Cross checkingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
16:44Jansen Harkins · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
19:25Wayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Logan Stanley2 min
19:25Wayne Simmonds · Roughingdrawn by Josh Morrissey2 min
19:25Logan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

100%

Biggest swing: Andrew Copp, 2nd 1:51 — WPG 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

6 G · 3.9 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.5 xG · 47 att WPG

6 G · 3.9 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.53 G
All situations: 6 G3.9; 2.31 G
Even strength: 3 G2.7; 1.22 G
Power play: 3 G1.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.41 – 3.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 41; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 2/5
Power play: 3/5; 31
Penalty minutes: 21; 15
Hits: 25; 7
Blocked shots: 18; 7
Giveaways: 9; 4
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	-1	4	0.16	2	1	0	—	24:55
34A. MatthewsC	1	0	1	-1	3	0.54	1	0	2	50	21:37
3J. HollD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	20:06
19J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	1	1	0	38	19:50
91J. TavaresC	0	1	1	0	6	0.85	0	0	0	47	19:39
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	1	1	0	—	19:08
88W. NylanderR	0	1	1	0	3	0.53	0	0	0	—	18:43
8J. MuzzinD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	2	0	2	—	17:58
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.16	0	0	0	0	16:13
37T. LiljegrenD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	1	0	—	15:57
58M. BuntingL	1	0	1	0	2	0.18	0	0	4	—	15:53
25O. KaseR	1	0	1	0	4	0.29	1	0	0	—	14:15
64D. KampfC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	1	1	0	57	13:41
38R. SandinD	0	1	1	-1	1	0.09	0	1	0	—	13:37
47P. EngvallL	0	1	1	-1	3	0.25	3	0	0	45	13:19
20N. RitchieL	0	1	1	-2	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	13:04
43K. CliffordL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	5	—	08:12
24W. SimmondsR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	18	—	06:14

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(L)	41	35	6	.854	3.92	-2.08	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 53@6this game
Mar 313@7Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score