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Sabres at Avalanche
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, ALT2·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 11:15 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 31, COL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Darcy Kuemper stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 1 A), 2. Gabriel Landeskog (1 G), 3. Darcy Kuemper (30 saves, .968).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    G. Landeskog1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    D. Kuemper30 saves, .968

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF06112013131
COLCOL11321716436

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(19)
    M. Rantanen (30), V. Nichushkin (11)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:49

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(11)
    J. Skinner (12)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:37
  2. COL
    N. Kadri(18)
    D. Sikura (1), A. Newhook (6)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    11:15
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(23)PPG
    C. Makar (26), S. Girard (21)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    13:03

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(12)EN
    L. O'Connor (11)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:57

Penalties

BUF 13 PIM·COL 13 PIM

1st

  • 2:09BUFJohn Hayden · Trippingdrawn by Mikhail Maltsev2 min
  • 12:13COLJack Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

2nd

  • 11:15BUFserved by P. Krebs · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 19:10BUFKyle Okposo · Fightingdrawn by Logan O'Connor5 min
  • 19:10COLLogan O'Connor · Fightingdrawn by Kyle Okposo5 min

3rd

  • 3:44COLMikko Rantanen · High stickingdrawn by Casey Fitzgerald2 min
  • 7:08COLGabriel Landeskog · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 10:52BUFRobert Hagg · Hookingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 11:08BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 16:48COLValeri Nichushkin · Interferencedrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalBUF goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 2nd 11:15 — COL 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.94G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.28N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.21G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.16A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.15D. Sikura · On goal · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.13K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.12D. Sikura · On goal · xG 0.12M. Maltsev · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.10N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10D. Sikura · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.09D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.08T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.04A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03K. MacDermid · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02K. MacDermid · Missed · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Maltsev · On goal · xG 0.01D. Sikura · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 4.0 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCOL
2.61 G
All situations
3 G4.0
1.91 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF43%57%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCOL
31
Shots on goal
36
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/4
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
13
15
Hits
19
11
Blocked shots
19
3
Giveaways
5
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
89A. TuchR000-140.2210210024:00
26R. DahlinD000-130.09020—22:05
53J. SkinnerL011070.671005021:36
10H. JokiharjuD000000.00300—20:36
24D. CozensC101030.290004620:17
19P. KrebsC000-210.05100019:18
20C. EakinC000-120.240007518:11
21K. OkposoR000-230.660053317:42
45C. FitzgeraldD000040.15220—17:23
17M. JankowskiL000000.061004415:52
23M. SamuelssonD000-200.00210—15:31
78J. BrysonD000+100.00230—13:42
96A. BjorkL000020.12000—13:39
71V. OlofssonL000-110.02000—13:28
13M. PysykD000-100.00010—13:28
15J. HaydenC000000.00122012:23
8R. HaggD000010.04102—10:13
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.000002004:59
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(L)35323.9143.02+0.0257:49

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).