Skip to content
Avalanche at Sabres
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV ALT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Newhook's goal at 8:37 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 36, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Dustin Tokarski stopped 31 of 35 (.886). Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (3 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G), 3. Nazem Kadri (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. Kadri1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL314011211536
BUFBUF2817017332

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(17)
    J. Skinner (15), A. Tuch (13)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:50
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(11)
    C. Makar (32), D. Toews (27)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    3:35
  3. COL
    J. Compher(9)
    N. Aube-Kubel (9)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    11:18
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(18)
    J. Skinner (16), R. Dahlin (25)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    12:42
  5. COL
    N. Kadri(21)
    V. Nichushkin (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    3-2
    13:02

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(19)
    M. Samuelsson (1)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    12:54

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Newhook(11)
    M. Rantanen (32)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +31 pts
    4-3
    8:37
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(26)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.96win prob +5 pts
    5-3
    19:08

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:44BUFPeyton Krebs · Slashingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min

2nd

  • 13:40BUFMattias Samuelsson · Interferencedrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

  • 9:11COLErik Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCOL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Alex Newhook, 3rd 8:37 — COL 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.21T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.20C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.17C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.15R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.12V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.10C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.10V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.10K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.6 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsBUF
4.74 G
All situations
3 G2.6
3.14 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL66%34%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.65 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
32
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
8
Hits
9
12
Blocked shots
9
3
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011020.11100—23:42
7D. ToewsD011010.08020—23:37
96M. RantanenR112+241.31000—20:27
49S. GirardD000000.00020—20:18
29N. MacKinnonC101+150.551005020:16
92G. LandeskogL000+110.161007520:04
6E. JohnsonD000+200.08032—17:47
91N. KadriC101+150.880004217:14
95A. BurakovskyL000010.16000—16:59
13V. NichushkinR011+120.11100—16:41
3J. JohnsonD000+120.03010—16:36
17T. JostC000+220.13000015:34
28R. MurrayD000+120.02020—15:20
37J. CompherL101+130.331106015:15
18A. NewhookC101-130.30010013:21
16N. Aube-KubelR011010.24200—10:22
43D. HelmC000-210.101002507:16
25L. O'ConnorR000010.12000—07:11
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(W)32293.9062.64-0.3660:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).