Stars at Flyers 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸3

Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, BSSW·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Philadelphia Flyers 3-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jacob Peterson's goal at 16:35 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 36, PHI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Carter Hart stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jacob Peterson (1 G), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G, 1 A), 3. Keith Yandle.

Three stars

★
J. Peterson1 G
★★
R. Hintz1 G, 1 A
★★★
K. Yandle

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	110	013	213	336
PHI	07	110	011	128

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

R. Hintz(18)
J. Robertson (22)
wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
1-0
17:46

2nd period

I. Provorov(5)
T. Konecny (17), J. Braun (8)
wristxG 0.01win prob +20 pts
1-1
12:06

3rd period

J. Peterson(7)
A. Radulov (12), R. Suter (13)
wristxG 0.15win prob +43 pts
2-1
16:35
J. Pavelski(17)EN
R. Hintz (16), E. Lindell (9)
snapxG 0.43win prob +5 pts
3-1
18:23

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PHI

Biggest swing: Jacob Peterson, 3rd 16:35 — DAL 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.9 xG · 44 att PHI

1 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.92 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 2.52 G
Even strength: 1 G2.3; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

36
Shots on goal: 28; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 0/0
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 0; 26
Hits: 28; 9
Blocked shots: 15; 7
Giveaways: 7; 5
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.19	3	2	—	26:16
20R. SuterD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	1	1	—	26:15
23E. LindellD	0	1	1	0	3	0.03	1	1	—	21:33
91T. SeguinC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.13	3	1	58	19:37
3J. KlingbergD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	2	0	—	19:08
21J. RobertsonL	0	1	1	0	3	0.41	1	1	—	18:45
24R. HintzC	1	1	2	+1	2	0.23	0	1	42	18:06
16J. PavelskiC	1	0	1	0	5	0.67	1	0	40	17:47
14J. BennL	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	2	0	45	16:38
47A. RadulovR	0	1	1	+2	3	0.13	1	0	—	15:00
2J. HakanpääD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	1	0	—	14:36
40J. PetersonC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	0	0	60	14:00
34D. GurianovR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	—	13:49
25J. KivirantaL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.19	4	0	—	12:52
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	2	—	12:12
13R. DamianiC	0	0	0	0	3	0.18	0	0	50	11:55
11L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	2	0	0	11:01
64T. KeroC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	10:30

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	28	27	1	.964	2.43	+1.43	60:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Nov 132@5Final
Jan 243@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Box score