Capitals at Islanders 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Washington Capitals

▸2

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Islanders 2-0. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tom Wilson's goal at 4:35 of the first period, which took the Capitals' chances from 46% to 58%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.0 to 2.9; shots on goal were WSH 36, NYI 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Vitek Vanecek stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 2.9 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Tom Wilson (1 G), 2. Semyon Varlamov (34 saves, .971), 3. Vitek Vanecek (23 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

★
T. Wilson1 G
★★
S. Varlamov34 saves, .971
★★★
V. Vanecek23 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	116	010	110	236
NYI	07	08	08	023

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

T. Wilson(10)
A. Protas (6)
wristxG 0.18win prob +12 pts
1-0
4:35

3rd period

A. Ovechkin(25)EN
E. Kuznetsov (24), N. Backstrom (4)
wristxG 0.95win prob +6 pts
2-0
19:49

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

12:09Andy Greene · Hookingdrawn by Daniel Sprong2 min

2nd

4:59Trevor van Riemsdyk · Interferencedrawn by Zach Parise2 min
14:06Anders Lee · High stickingdrawn by Nic Dowd2 min
16:59Brett Leason · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

3rd

9:33Justin Schultz · Hookingdrawn by Oliver Wahlstrom2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Tom Wilson, 1st 4:35 — WSH 46% → 58%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.9 xG · 32 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 4.0 xG · 43 att NYI

0 G · 2.9 xG · 32 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.01 G
All situations: 0 G2.9; 2.71 G
Even strength: 0 G1.9; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.9; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

54%46%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.06 – 2.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

36
Shots on goal: 23; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 20
Hits: 26; 11
Blocked shots: 14; 6
Giveaways: 15; 2
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	0	3	0	—	23:48
43T. WilsonR	1	0	1	+1	3	0.26	3	1	0	100	22:45
42M. FehérváryD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.17	5	0	0	—	21:56
3N. JensenD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	1	1	0	—	19:30
8A. OvechkinL	1	0	1	+1	4	1.44	2	0	0	—	19:19
20L. EllerC	0	0	0	0	5	0.33	0	0	0	38	18:49
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.09	3	2	2	—	18:41
19N. BackstromC	0	1	1	+2	4	0.28	0	1	0	50	17:55
2J. SchultzD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	2	—	16:37
26N. DowdC	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	0	50	16:21
92E. KuznetsovC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.16	0	0	0	67	16:14
21G. HathawayR	0	0	0	0	4	0.64	0	2	0	—	16:05
52M. IrwinD	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	4	0	0	—	15:43
49B. LeasonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	0	2	—	14:16
59A. ProtasL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:55
10D. SprongR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	10:35
24C. McMichaelL	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	0	0	0	100	09:45
77T. OshieR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	01:46

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41V. Vanecek(W)	23	23	0	1.000	2.86	+2.86	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score