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Senators at Flames
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Calgary Flames
1
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 4-1. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Paul's goal at 16:37 of the first period, which took the Senators' chances from 61% to 77%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.0, CGY 3.0; shots on goal were OTT 34, CGY 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 2.0 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Paul (2 G), 2. Connor Brown (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Murray (27 saves, .964).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    N. Paul2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Brown1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Murray27 saves, .964

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT21311318434
CGYCGY01006112128

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    N. Paul(5)
    A. Formenton (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:43
  2. OTT
    N. Paul(6)
    C. Brown (14), A. Formenton (6)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    16:37

2nd period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(10)
    B. Tkachuk (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    3-0
    19:03

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(16)
    C. Tanev (8), J. Gaudreau (24)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    3-1
    0:47
  2. OTT
    C. Brown(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
    4-1
    4:52

Penalties

OTT 7 PIM·CGY 21 PIM

1st

  • 2:10OTTErik Brannstrom · Cross checkingdrawn by Trevor Lewis2 min

2nd

  • 1:47OTTScott Sabourin · Fightingdrawn by Milan Lucic5 min
  • 1:47CGYMilan Lucic · Fightingdrawn by Scott Sabourin5 min
  • 2:04CGYAndrew Mangiapane · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

3rd

  • 9:11CGYBrett Ritchie · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Matt Murray2 min
  • 17:22CGYNikita Zadorov · Roughingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min
  • 17:22CGYNikita Zadorov · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalOTT goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Nick Paul, 1st 16:37 — OTT 61% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.17O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.16B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.16J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.15E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.14N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.13B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.12B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.11B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.10M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.10M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.10D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.06E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.04T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.04M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.03M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.03S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.03T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.03O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.03B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.02O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.02B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY1 G · 3.0 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCGY
3.04 G
All situations
1 G3.0
2.54 G
Even strength
1 G2.7
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT50%50%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.96 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCGY
34
Shots on goal
28
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
21
12
Hits
17
10
Blocked shots
10
5
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000+110.22000—23:43
2A. ZubD000+210.01120—21:20
5N. HoldenD000+100.00110—21:00
21N. PaulL202+250.701105720:09
28C. BrownR112+340.50000—19:28
7B. TkachukL011040.261002019:04
10A. FormentonL022+220.06000—18:30
24J. Bernard-DockerD000010.07110—17:45
9J. NorrisC000030.360106717:13
26E. BrannstromD000+130.06012—17:12
19D. BathersonR101+120.11000—16:53
13Z. SanfordL000+120.07220—15:47
16A. WatsonL000-130.03100—14:34
27D. GambrellC000+110.080103614:33
3J. BrownD000+100.00200—14:18
71C. TierneyC000010.220002511:18
63T. EnnisR000010.23100—11:08
49S. SabourinR000000.00105—04:05
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)28271.9642.97+1.9760:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).