Islanders at Flames 2-5 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

Calgary Flames

▸5

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Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tanev's goal at 18:08 of the first period, which took the Flames' chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.3, CGY 2.4; shots on goal were NYI 21, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.6 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Adam Ruzicka (1 G, 1 A), 2. Rasmus Andersson (1 A), 3. Milan Lucic (1 A).

Three stars

★
A. Ruzicka1 G, 1 A
★★
R. Andersson1 A
★★★
M. Lucic1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	19	15	07	221
CGY	210	18	211	529

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

A. Ruzicka(3)
R. Andersson (22), N. Hanifin (18)
wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
0-1
9:58
N. Dobson(7)PPG
M. Barzal (19), J. Pageau (8)
slapxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
1-1
17:07
C. Tanev(4)
J. Gaudreau (38), O. Kylington (18)
wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
1-2
18:08

2nd period

A. Mangiapane(24)
A. Ruzicka (3), N. Zadorov (8)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
1-3
15:32
J. Pageau(6)
Z. Parise (11), O. Wahlstrom (9)
wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
2-3
16:50

3rd period

E. Gudbranson(2)
M. Lucic (8), T. Lewis (6)
snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
2-4
8:00
E. Lindholm(18)
M. Tkachuk (29), J. Gaudreau (39)
snapxG 0.16win prob +2 pts
2-5
15:13

Penalties

7 PIM·

11 PIM

1st

12:33Chris Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
16:14Dillon Dube · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
19:55Ryan Pulock · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

2nd

12:01Ross Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Erik Gudbranson5 min
12:01Erik Gudbranson · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min
17:52Blake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tanev, 1st 18:08 — CGY 53% → 68%

Game flow

expected goals, added up

2.32

2.37dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out

Period	NYI xG	Att	G	CGY xG	Att	G
1st	1.42	19	1	0.40	11	2
2nd	0.45	10	1	0.77	15	1
3rd	0.45	11	0	1.20	19	2

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

5 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.3 xG · 40 att CGY

5 G · 2.4 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.32 G
All situations: 5 G2.4; 1.81 G
Even strength: 5 G2.3; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G0.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 2.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG

A. Beauvillier1st 14:34 · wrist · 9 ftMissed29%
Z. Parise1st 13:40 · wrist · 12 ft · PPSaved17%
E. Lindholm2nd 9:14 · wrist · 11 ftMissed17%
E. Lindholm3rd 15:13 · snap · 23 ftGoal16%
B. Nelson2nd 6:19 · backhand · 10 ftSaved16%
A. Ruzicka1st 9:58 · wrist · 10 ftGoal15%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 29; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 1/3
Power play: 0/1; 7
Penalty minutes: 11; 12
Hits: 15; 22
Blocked shots: 9; 9
Giveaways: 14; 6
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8N. DobsonD	1	0	1	-2	3	0.16	0	7	0	—	22:08
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	-1	0	0.06	0	0	0	50	20:56
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	1	0	—	20:42
24S. MayfieldD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	18:23
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	-4	3	0.14	1	2	2	—	18:09
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	-3	1	0.05	1	2	0	—	18:03
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	0	0	—	17:33
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	-2	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	17:29
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.26	0	3	0	33	17:19
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.49	1	0	0	—	17:18
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	0	1	0	40	17:00
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	100	16:50
44J. PageauC	1	1	2	-1	1	0.22	2	1	0	68	16:38
11Z. PariseL	0	1	1	-1	1	0.19	0	0	0	—	14:46
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.17	1	1	0	58	12:46
26O. WahlstromR	0	1	1	-1	2	0.23	0	1	0	—	12:17
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	1	0	—	10:22
32R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	5	—	09:21

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(L)	29	24	5	.828	2.37	-2.63	60:00

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Nov 205@2Final
Feb 122@5this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score