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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ilya Mikheyev's goal at 11:25 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 57% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.0; shots on goal were EDM 30, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Jack Campbell stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Ilya Mikheyev (1 G), 2. William Nylander (2 A), 3. Leon Draisaitl (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    I. Mikheyev1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM2908013230
TORTOR21507211433

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(14)
    W. Nylander (19), A. Kerfoot (16)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:25
  2. EDM
    B. Perlini(2)
    C. Sceviour (2), K. Turris (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:58
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(26)
    K. Yamamoto (5), W. Foegele (7)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    11:12
  4. TOR
    T. Brodie(3)
    W. Nylander (20), A. Matthews (14)
    tip-inxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    19:32

3rd period

  1. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(3)PPG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    11:25
  2. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(5)EN
    Unassisted
    tip-inxG 0.56win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:45

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

2nd

  • 5:39TORDavid Kampf · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Benson2 min
  • 12:52EDMSlater Koekkoek · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 10:12EDMEvan Bouchard · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev, 3rd 11:25 — TOR 57% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.56J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.26J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.25A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.18W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.12M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.11I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.00D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 3.5 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
2.02 G
All situations
3 G3.5
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM33%67%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 2.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
30
Shots on goal
33
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
19
Hits
22
13
Blocked shots
6
8
Giveaways
11
16
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
29L. DraisaitlC101-250.640004624:49
25D. NurseD000-220.17340—24:49
75E. BouchardD000-240.08002—23:55
2D. KeithD000+100.01100—22:21
5C. CeciD000020.04300—21:41
37W. FoegeleL011010.02420—20:38
56K. YamamotoR011000.08000—20:18
18Z. HymanL000-320.1622010020:12
20S. KoekkoekD000+110.02012—13:56
71R. McLeodC000010.050005013:32
13J. PuljujarviR000-120.11000—13:15
8K. TurrisC011+110.050005013:02
44Z. KassianR000-130.09100—12:30
84W. LagessonD000000.02210—12:05
14D. ShoreC000010.111203311:09
16T. BensonL000010.01000—10:10
70C. SceviourC011+110.012103810:08
42B. PerliniL101+130.32000—09:37
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(L)32293.9062.94-0.0658:40

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).