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Avalanche at Predators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV ALT, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 16:48 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 74% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were COL 26, NSH 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.5 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (2 G, 1 A), 2. Colton Sissons (3 A), 3. Tanner Jeannot (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    C. Sissons3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    T. Jeannot1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL01113112226
NSHNSH11021728535

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(12)
    A. Carrier (8), C. Sissons (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:23

2nd period

  1. NSH
    T. Jeannot(7)PPG
    C. Sissons (8), F. Forsberg (8)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    7:20
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(14)PPG
    N. Kadri (27), N. MacKinnon (21)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    9:57
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(13)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    16:48

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(10)
    M. Rantanen (16), S. Girard (13)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    2-3
    9:12
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(10)PPG
    C. Sissons (9), T. Jeannot (9)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    12:19
  3. NSH
    M. Ekholm(1)EN
    A. Carrier (9)
    slapxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:52

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 18:24NSHTanner Jeannot · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

2nd

  • 1:59COLErik Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 3:03COLSamuel Girard · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 6:52COLJordan Gross · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 8:45NSHAlexandre Carrier · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 13:30NSHYakov Trenin · Interferencedrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

3rd

  • 1:34COLNicolas Aube-Kubel · Hookingdrawn by Matt Benning2 min
  • 7:09NSHLuke Kunin · Holdingdrawn by Erik Johnson2 min
  • 11:55COLJordan Gross · Cross checkingdrawn by Cody Glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCOL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 2nd 16:48 — NSH 74% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.49C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.15R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.14T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.13E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.12R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.12L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.11T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.10C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.09C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.08M. Olivier · Missed · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.07C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · Missed · xG 0.05T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.04M. Olivier · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.03T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH5 G · 3.0 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNSH
2.32 G
All situations
4 G3.0
1.41 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.91 G
Power play
2 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL47%53%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNSH
26
Shots on goal
35
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/4
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
22
13
Blocked shots
11
2
Giveaways
6
5
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
49S. GirardD011-210.06042—31:46
29N. MacKinnonC011-220.312305926:21
13V. NichushkinR101-140.43000—25:47
96M. RantanenR112-160.47000—23:27
6E. JohnsonD000010.00322—23:24
91N. KadriC011050.510004422:24
25L. O'ConnorR000-210.04010—20:38
20J. BarronD000-200.02010—16:00
3J. JohnsonD000000.00100—15:55
18A. NewhookC000000.241005715:35
56K. MacDermidL000020.06510—14:39
11M. MaltsevL000020.0300010014:32
17T. JostC000010.100006012:32
16N. Aube-KubelR000000.00002—12:20
43D. HelmC000-110.050105011:08
79J. GrossD000000.00104—08:19
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(L)34304.8822.50-1.5058:21

Season series

NSH leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).