Wild at Oilers 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸4

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV BSN, BSWI·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Rask's goal at 5:33 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 75% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.6 to 2.7; shots on goal were MIN 26, EDM 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 38 of 39 (.974), 2.6 goals saved above expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (38 saves, .974), 2. Joel Eriksson Ek (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jesse Puljujarvi (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Talbot38 saves, .974
★★
J. Eriksson Ek1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Puljujarvi1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	210	06	210	426
EDM	010	120	09	139

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

J. Eriksson Ek(10)PPG
M. Zuccarello (12), J. Brodin (10)
wristxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
1-0
1:11
M. Foligno(11)
M. Dumba (10), J. Eriksson Ek (7)
wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
2-0
7:14

2nd period

J. Puljujarvi(8)
C. McDavid (27), Z. Hyman (8)
wristxG 0.31win prob +16 pts
2-1
6:34

3rd period

V. Rask(4)
J. Brodin (11), M. Zuccarello (13)
wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
3-1
5:33
D. Kulikov(3)
K. Kaprizov (21), J. Benn (2)
wristxG 0.24win prob +2 pts
4-1
14:57

Penalties

10 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

0:33Evan Bouchard · Holdingdrawn by Nico Sturm2 min
7:50Dmitry Kulikov · Holdingdrawn by Colton Sceviour2 min
12:17Rem Pitlick · Trippingdrawn by Markus Niemelainen2 min

2nd

2:54Jonas Brodin · Trippingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
13:12Evan Bouchard · Trippingdrawn by Victor Rask2 min
14:35Marcus Foligno · Hookingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

3rd

9:26Jordan Greenway · Slashingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Victor Rask, 3rd 5:33 — MIN 75% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.6 xG · 59 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.7 xG · 33 att EDM

1 G · 3.6 xG · 59 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.74 G
All situations: 1 G3.6; 2.23 G
Even strength: 1 G2.5; 0.41 G
Power play: 0 G1.0; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

34%66%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 3.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 39; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 1/2
Power play: 0/5; 10
Penalty minutes: 4; 25
Hits: 23; 13
Blocked shots: 8; 16
Giveaways: 7; 9
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
24M. DumbaD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	5	1	0	—	22:37
25J. BrodinD	0	2	2	+1	2	0.06	1	2	2	—	22:28
29D. KulikovD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.27	0	0	2	—	21:08
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	0	0	11	20:10
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	18:36
8J. BennD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	3	0	0	—	17:23
47A. GoligoskiD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	16:47
18J. GreenwayL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.14	4	0	2	—	16:45
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	2	2	0	3	0.18	0	0	0	—	16:37
97K. KaprizovL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.24	0	1	0	—	16:25
14J. Eriksson EkC	1	1	2	0	4	0.42	3	0	0	75	15:39
7N. SturmC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	50	15:29
17M. FolignoL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.15	2	0	2	—	15:18
22K. FialaL	0	0	0	+2	3	0.28	0	0	0	—	13:29
21B. DuhaimeL	0	0	0	0	0	0.17	1	1	0	—	12:14
27N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	0	2	0.46	1	2	0	67	11:35
49V. RaskC	1	0	1	+2	1	0.08	1	0	0	33	09:29
16R. PitlickC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	2	100	07:54

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33C. Talbot(W)	39	38	1	.974	3.63	+2.63	59:57

Season series

MIN leads 3-0

Dec 74@1this game
Feb 207@3Final
Apr 121@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score