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Avalanche at Senators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
5
Ottawa Senators
▸6
Final/OTTV ALT, SN1·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-5 in overtime, Brady Tkachuk scoring at 0:51. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Senators led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 0:51 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.1, OTT 2.2; shots on goal were COL 31, OTT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 17 of 19 (.895), 0.8 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tim Stützle (2 G, 1 A), 3. Devon Toews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL2131621101531
OTTOTT2123140711634

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    D. Helm(3)
    N. Aube-Kubel (3), A. Newhook (3)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:26
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(6)
    T. Stützle (8), T. Chabot (9)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:28
  3. OTT
    A. Watson(1)
    D. Gambrell (1)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    5:57
  4. COL
    G. Landeskog(8)PPG
    D. Toews (9), N. MacKinnon (13)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    2-2
    8:19

2nd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(2)
    C. Brown (8), N. Paul (1)
    xG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    1:13
  2. OTT
    J. Norris(10)
    B. Tkachuk (9), T. Chabot (10)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    2:49
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(3)PPG
    D. Batherson (11), J. Norris (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    2-5
    7:46
  4. COL
    A. Newhook(4)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.20win prob +8 pts
    3-5
    9:36

3rd period

  1. COL
    T. Jost(3)
    N. MacKinnon (14), J. Johnson (3)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    4-5
    1:52
  2. COL
    D. Toews(4)
    N. MacKinnon (15), G. Landeskog (16)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +44 pts
    5-5
    18:40

Overtime

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(7)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.18win prob +49 pts
    5-6
    0:51

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:12OTTJosh Norris · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 12:24COLAndre Burakovsky · Hookingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

2nd

  • 7:29COLAndre Burakovsky · Trippingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 11:40COLSamuel Girard · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

3rd

  • 3:23OTTAlex Formenton · Trippingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCOL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, OT 0:51 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.24B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.18J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.18J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.15T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.11A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.09T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.08J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.07A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.05L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.03N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01L. Thomson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 2.2 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsOTT
2.15 G
All situations
6 G2.2
1.74 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL47%53%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.07 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
34
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
29
Hits
30
13
Blocked shots
16
14
Giveaways
15
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD112040.14140—31:17
49S. GirardD000-340.05222—27:25
29N. MacKinnonC033-130.341103927:22
92G. LandeskogL112-140.303106323:14
6E. JohnsonD000-120.05600—22:07
95A. BurakovskyL000020.10014—20:15
96M. RantanenR000-120.052005018:58
13V. NichushkinR000-210.04200—18:57
3J. JohnsonD011+100.01220—18:02
25L. O'ConnorR000010.11300—16:22
17T. JostC101+120.171105714:19
56K. MacDermidL000+100.00110—13:00
16N. Aube-KubelR011+200.10100—12:09
18A. NewhookC112+220.310001512:08
43D. HelmC101+120.24200009:27
12J. MegnaC000010.041001707:43
26J. MacDonaldD000010.02100—06:11
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(O)19172.8951.18-0.8237:22
31J. Johansson15123.8001.05-1.9522:49

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).