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Senators at Avalanche
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
5
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
FinalTV ALT, SN1·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Ottawa Senators 7-5. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Newhook's goal at 18:27 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.3 to 1.1; shots on goal were OTT 21, COL 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 33 of 39 (.846), 2.3 goals below expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 15 of 20 (.750), 4.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cale Makar (2 G), 2. Zachary Sanford (3 G), 3. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    Z. Sanford3 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. Kadri1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2714210521
COLCOL210119411740

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(3)
    N. Kadri (15), A. Burakovsky (5)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:50
  2. OTT
    Z. Sanford(3)PPG
    L. Thomson (2), M. Del Zotto (4)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    12:53
  3. COL
    C. Makar(6)
    G. Landeskog (9)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    13:11
  4. OTT
    A. Zub(1)
    B. Tkachuk (5)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    19:14

2nd period

  1. COL
    D. Toews(3)
    N. Kadri (16), A. Burakovsky (6)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    13:44
  2. OTT
    Z. Sanford(4)
    T. Ennis (8)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    16:33

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(7)PPG
    T. Stützle (6), C. Brown (6)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +23 pts
    4-3
    1:03
  2. COL
    C. Makar(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +25 pts
    4-4
    2:45
  3. OTT
    Z. Sanford(5)
    B. Tkachuk (6), L. Shaw (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +28 pts
    5-4
    5:00
  4. COL
    M. Rantanen(7)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (7), N. Kadri (17)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +31 pts
    5-5
    9:08
  5. COL
    A. Newhook(2)
    L. O'Connor (4), V. Nichushkin (3)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +45 pts
    5-6
    18:27
  6. COL
    N. Kadri(6)EN
    D. Toews (3)
    wristxG 0.55win prob +2 pts
    5-7
    19:48

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:43OTTAlex Formenton · Cross checkingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min
  • 10:57COLNazem Kadri · Holdingdrawn by Artem Zub2 min

2nd

  • 2:28OTTAustin Watson · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Murray2 min
  • 5:49OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:25COLSamuel Girard · Trippingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min

3rd

  • 5:52COLValeri Nichushkin · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 7:14OTTTyler Ennis · Illegal check to headdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 7:14OTTTyler Ennis · Roughingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 7:14COLTyson Jost · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalOTT goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Newhook, 3rd 18:27 — COL 52% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.55N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.27L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.25A. Newhook · Goal · xG 0.18D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.16V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.16G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.16L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.15L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.15D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.10T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.06C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.06J. Megna · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03R. Murray · On goal · xG 0.03L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.03D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02J. Megna · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01
COL7 G · 4.3 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCOL
1.15 G
All situations
6 G4.3
0.63 G
Even strength
5 G2.3
0.52 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT10%90%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.09 – 3.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCOL
21
Shots on goal
40
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
20
14
Blocked shots
14
3
Giveaways
6
8
Takeaways
19

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000000.00400—31:54
2A. ZubD101020.02000—25:14
28C. BrownR011-200.00000—23:02
7B. TkachukL022-120.143204019:50
9J. NorrisC101-320.241005619:31
98V. MeteD000-210.11000—19:27
60L. ThomsonD011-140.16300—19:23
21N. PaulL000-100.00210—17:28
18T. StützleC011-340.09002016:19
15M. Del ZottoD011-100.00220—15:58
71C. TierneyC000010.002006415:19
13Z. SanfordL303+130.21020—15:15
27D. GambrellC000000.000005813:30
10A. FormentonL000-110.01112—12:15
63T. EnnisR011+110.11114—08:59
16A. WatsonL000-200.00042—08:48
20L. ShawR011000.000004408:29
3J. BrownD000-100.00110—02:35
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(L)39336.8463.73-2.2758:50

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).